Assessing the impact of a Trump vs. Harris presidency for Canada

With the US election right around the corner, it’s important to understand how the outcome might affect Canada’s economy. If Harris wins and Democrats take control of Congress, it will likely mean a continuation of the status quo from a Canadian perspective. A Harris administration would push for a wide range of social benefit policies, along with higher taxes for corporations and wealthy individuals, which we estimate would give the US economy a modest boost.

Stronger US demand would also temporarily raise GDP and inflation in Canada, but likely not enough to alter the path for Canadian monetary policy. On the other hand, another term for Trump with Republican control of Congress would usher in stiff new tariffs and a renewed era of global uncertainty that would mean higher inflation, tighter monetary policy and slower economic growth in both the US and Canada.

We estimate Canada’s GDP would fall just under 1% below our current baseline by 2029, with substantial hits to business on residential investment and international trade.