Assessing the impact of a Trump vs. Harris presidency for Canada

A Kamala Harris presidency wouldn’t materially alter the economic outlook for Canada. Another term for Donald Trump would usher in stiff tariffs and a renewed era of global uncertainty that would likely mean higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and slower economic growth relative to our baseline.

What you will learn:

• Our modelling of a Harris presidency with Democratic control of Congress suggests Canada would see small, temporary boosts to GDP and inflation which largely dissipate by 2029. If Harris wins in November, we don’t think it would alter the path for Canadian monetary policy.
• A Trump victory and Republican control of Congress would result in weaker growth, higher inflation, and tighter monetary policy in Canada and globally, largely due to the imposition of sweeping tariffs on Canada, China, and other major US trading partners. Canada’s GDP would be 0.9% lower than our current baseline by 2029, with substantial hits to business non-residential investment and international trade.
• Both scenarios assume the party that wins the presidential election also gains control of Congress and fully implements their campaign pledges. While we subjectively place higher odds on a divided US government, these scenarios provide reasonable bookends for the potential impacts of the US election on the Canadian economy.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.