Research Briefing
Our cross asset framework is based on five proprietary indicators (economic cycle, credit impulse, financial stress, relative valuation, and sentiment)...
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Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average,...
Research Briefing
Downside risks to our near-term outlook for global real estate are mounting, as the global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate over the...
Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
The acceleration in nominal wage growth rates in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies over the past couple of quarters...
Research Briefing
We will increase gas prices and inflation and cut GDP growth in the September forecast round, with the eurozone economy...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Research Briefing
If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine's ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly...
Research Briefing
A right-wing coalition government is expected to win in the upcoming Italian elections in September. Although "euroexit" is now very...
Research Briefing
We have expanded our climate transmission channels on the Global Economic Model to include more sub-Saharan African economies. Through scenario...
Research Briefing
Global economic uncertainty remains elevated, despite an easing in concerns about the fallout from war. Evidence suggests risks to growth...
Oxford Economics launches our Global Risk Service, a suite of data-driven and forward-looking tools that measure macro-economic and financial crises...
Research Briefing
We are concerned about the prospect of distressed sovereigns dragging down their domestic banking systems. We identify an extraordinarily high...
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Back to Resource Hub Brochure Global Risk Service Brochure Whether you are involved in foreign investment, cross-border trade or supply...
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Back to Resource Hub Brochure Banking Sector Risk Tool Brochure Systemic banking crises can strike any type of economy and...
Research Briefing
From a climate change perspective, 2021 was another remarkable year. While not the warmest year on record, a host of...
Research Briefing
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and EU announced harsh new sanctions, including banning some Russian banks from SWIFT...
