Research Briefing
After getting carried away at the turn of the year with the likely extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts in...
Inflation
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 679 results
Research Briefing
The lower-than-expected increase in nonfarm payroll employment, along with declining job openings and quits, suggest that wage pressures are unlikely...
Research Briefing
Extensive academic research shows the importance of central bank independence in reducing inflation. Those institutions with strong operational independence from...
Research Briefing
A second Trump presidency would directly harm US manufacturing through two channels: repeal of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA);...
Research Briefing
Lower house prices and falling mortgage rates will reduce stubbornly high shelter inflation and help return headline CPI inflation to...
Research Briefing
The biggest surprise from the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting had nothing to do with interest rate...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator shows the economy hit a rough patch at the start of the year but there is...
Research Briefing
As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 0%-0.1% at Friday's meeting. With more confidence on the ongoing wage-driven...
Research Briefing
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative...
Research Briefing
Odds are that there will not be anything from the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that would...
The 2024 federal budget projects a steady diet of wider deficits over the next five years, adding new spending only...
Research Briefing
Equities are under pressure following this month's stronger-than-expected US inflation print. We see scope for some further weakness in the...
Research Briefing
The impact of Red Sea shipping disruption on the eurozone economy continues to be limited, in line with our baseline...
Research Briefing
The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East does not pose a downside risk to the US economy because...
Research Briefing
We forecast Bank Indonesia will start cutting its policy rate in Q2, which will provide a cyclical tailwind for credit...
Research Briefing
We now project that the Bank of Japan will start to raise its policy rate next spring assuming another robust...
Research Briefing
Reflecting a surprisingly strong Spring Negotiation result and weaker yen assumption, we have upgraded our baseline wage and inflation forecasts....
The supply-shocks era (2020-23) represented the first time in a generation where inflation significantly eroded the real value of global...
Research Briefing
We think the Riksbank will cut rates in May, before the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank do so....
Research Briefing
We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control...
