Climate Change and Food Prices in Southeast Asia: 2024 Update
Commissioned by ASEAN Food and Beverage Alliance (AFBA) and Food Industry Asia (FIA)
In 2022, Oxford Economics published our first joint report with Food Industry Asia (FIA) on climate change and food prices in ASEAN countries. In this new report, we extend our previous analyses for more countries and over a longer time frame.
We find that a 1% increase in the average temperature raises food producer prices by 1-2% across Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Our analysis also suggest that food production costs would rise by 31-59% in a scenario in which the world achieves net zero emissions by 2050, compared to the current baseline (in which credibly announced policies are carried through).
The impact of physical and transition risks on food prices calls for ASEAN governments to protect consumers and ease the impact of climate transition. The good news is that ASEAN policymakers are facing a golden opportunity to leverage rising foreign direct investment inflows to the region to upgrade its food sector. In 2022, the region accounted for more than a third of global FDI inflows, up from just one fourth in 2012.
Furthermore, the report makes an economic case for global cooperation to ease the cost of transition for ASEAN food producers. ASEAN accounted for 9.1% of global food exports in 2021, up from 6.6% in 2000. This highlights ASEAN’s increasing importance in safeguarding global food security and avoiding a cost-of-living crisis.
To download the report, please complete the form below.
Read the report
Complete the form below to download the report.
The experts behind the research
Our Macro Consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
Thang Nguyen-Quoc
Lead Economist, Macro Consulting
Theng Theng Tan
Economist, Macro Consulting
Tags:
Related reports
Spirits: global economic impact study 2024
On behalf of the World Spirits Alliance (WSA), and in collaboration with the IWSR, Oxford Economics undertook the first ever truly global economic impact assessment of the production and sale of spirits across 185 economies in 2022. The study found that the production and sale of spirits supported $730 billion in GVA contributions to global GDP, as well as 36 million jobs and $390 billion in tax revenue for governments across the world.
Find Out More
Food prices to bottom out in 2024, risks skewed to upside
Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, in aggregate, reducing pressure on food retail prices further downstream. However, we believe the risks to this forecast are overwhelmingly skewed to the upside.
Find Out More
Wheat prices soften in 2024, but risks tilted to the upside
Households have been grappling with sharply higher food bills over the past couple of years because of rocketing agricultural commodity prices, which have contributed to sharply higher inflation globally. Key amongst these agricultural commodities is the price of wheat, which is especially important in much of the developed world.
Find Out More
Diageo’s Economic Impact in Europe
Diageo commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an assessment of its economic impact across Europe in 2022. This illustrated the company's large economic footprint, which supported a a significant number of jobs throughout its value chain.
Find Out More