Recent Release | 11 Oct 2022

The Economic Impact of the Agri-Food Sector in Southeast Asia (2022)

Macro Consulting Team

Oxford Economics


A comprehensive analysis of the economic contribution the agri-food sector makes to Southeast Asia, through five key markets: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. We explore the demand outlook for the sector and the challenges it faces in the current global economic context, and the longer term.

This study builds on the foundations of our previous collaboration with Food Industry Asia in 2021, in which we redefined the agri-food sector to include three components of the food value chain: agricultural production; food and beverage (F&B) manufacturing; and F&B distribution (including wholesale, retail and hospitality services).

In 2021, the agri-food sector contributed USD 808.7 billion to the five Southeast Asian economies in our study (see Fig 1). This impact is 21% higher, in real terms, than it was in 2015—the first year of our analysis.

Nevertheless, there are significant risks on the horizon for the agri-food sector, not least four major macroeconomic challenges that could hinder the sector’s progress: inflation, changing demographics, currency instability, and fiscal policy risks. Compounding those challenges, is the need for innovation and investment in reforms that will make the sector more sustainable and resilient to future environmental and economic shocks.

About the team

Our macro consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

James Lambert

Director of Economic Consulting, Asia

Matthew Tinsley

Lead Economist, Economics & Sustainability

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