Research Briefing
Odds are that there will not be anything from the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that would...
Federal Reserve
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 85 results
Research Briefing
We think the Riksbank will cut rates in May, before the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank do so....
Research Briefing
The strength of the labor market and lingering worries about inflation among Federal Reserve officials have led us to push...
Despite the upgrade to our global economic outlook since December 2023, the Q1 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL...
Research Briefing
We expect the March employment report to show moderating job growth, adding to the Federal Reserve's confidence that the labor...
Research Briefing
A scenario where neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank cut rates in 2024 would reduce eurozone GDP...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of Banxico's reaction function reaffirms our forecast that the policy rate will end the year at 8.25% –...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator implies that the economy is losing momentum, but there are some caveats. Some of the data...
Research Briefing
The West's major central banks are well into their quantitative tightening programmes, reducing their combined balance sheet by $5.1 trillion....
Research Briefing
Inflation has fallen sharply in advanced economies over the past year, and we expect central banks to start cutting interest...
Research Briefing
Presidential elections not only have major implications for the future path of fiscal policy and the macroeconomic outlook, but they...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) GDP growth will disappoint next year but EM central banks will reap the dividends of credible policies...
Research Briefing
We forecast no rate cuts by the Fed up to and including the July meeting, while the market prices 72bps....
Research Briefing
We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Research Briefing
While the economy has expanded throughout 2023, uncertainty remains high and we are not ready to remove a recession from...
Research Briefing
We still think that the US economy is headed for a slowdown at the turn of the year. Three factors...
Research Briefing
Our supply-chain stress tracker declined again in June and stood halfway below its year-ago level, signaling a massive improvement in...
