Research Briefing
As far as markets are concerned, the Fed's expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year,...
Economic risk
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Research Briefing
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies...
Research Briefing
While US policy rates will rise further in the near-term, the long-run neutral rate – the interest rate consistent with...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
We continue to believe the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of...
Research Briefing
Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average,...
Research Briefing
South Africa faces a serious risk of being 'grey listed' by the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which will...
Research Briefing
The July Global Risk Survey was conducted at a time when central banks in major economies were sharply raising policy...
Research Briefing
We are concerned about the prospect of distressed sovereigns dragging down their domestic banking systems. We identify an extraordinarily high...
Research Briefing
From a climate change perspective, 2021 was another remarkable year. While not the warmest year on record, a host of...
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Research Briefing
We concur with the central bank’s (BSP) view that the current rise in inflation in the Philippines is for the...
Research Briefing
The government has announced a record spending plan in the 2022 Budget to spur the post pandemic recovery. Measures include...
Research Briefing
The Delta coronavirus variant poses the greatest risk to the global economy, according to our latest survey of risk perceptions....
Research Briefing
We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium...
Inflation has become the all-consuming focus of investors’ attention in recent weeks. On the surface the story is simple—transitory factors...
Research Briefing
Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked...
Research Briefing
Egypt has proven to have one of the most resilient emerging market economies on the globe in the face of...
Three of the most populous states, including hard-hit New York, have aging healthcare workforces that may be more vulnerable to...
