Research Briefing | Sep 22, 2022

Will a US recession derail the travel recovery?

Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in gas prices, core inflation remains stubbornly persistent and broad-based across goods & services. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will act aggressively and raise interest rates until inflation is brought down. The Oxford Economics baseline 2023 GDP forecast now sits at 0.0%, down from 1.0% in last month’s forecast, while our expectations for GDP growth in 2022 remain unchanged at 1.7%. What you will learn:

What you will learn:

  • Softening labor markets and a weaker economic environment will slow consumer spending.
  • However, recessionary impacts on leisure travel will be modest compared to past economic downturns.
  • A mild recession in 2023 will slow but not reverse the trend of the business travel recovery cycle.
  • Global weakness and a strong US dollar could slow the recovery of inbound international travel.
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