Research Briefing | Aug 12, 2022

Rapid policy tightening fuels businesses’ recession fears

Rapid policy tightening fuels businesses' recession fears

The July Global Risk Survey was conducted at a time when central banks in major economies were sharply raising policy rates. The potential fall-out for the global economy is prominent in our results, with 1-in-4 respondents now citing rapid policy tightening as the top near-term global economic risk.

What you will learn:

  • Businesses are increasingly concerned about the impact of rapid central bank policy tightening on global growth, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. Respondents see almost a 60% chance of the eurozone following the US into technical recession in the next 12 months. 
  • Tighter policy already appears to beaffecting businesses’ inflation expectations. The perceived chance of very high (6%+) world inflation next year has halved since our previous survey. 
  • Despite the sharp rise in inflation over the past year, the mean expectation for world inflation in the medium term has risen only marginally. But businesses see material upside risks, with a 1-in-5 chance of inflation remaining above 4% over the medium term.

Back to Resource Hub

Related posts


Infographic: key themes driving location decisioning in 2024

In this infographic, we present the themes that are crucial to location decisioning in 2024 and pinpoint potential bright spots.

Find Out More


Global Industry: Energy transition will transform mining—promise and pitfalls

We expect that demand for energy transition-related critical minerals will grow significantly in the next decades even in the absence of rapid progress required to achieve net zero.

Find Out More


Property sector risks haven’t gone away

Overall, the downturn in the property sector is much less severe than in some previous cycles, especially for residential property. This is good news for growth. Still, property sector risks haven't gone away yet, especially in the troubled commercial real estate (CRE) area.

Find Out More