Research Briefing | Oct 4, 2022

Positive on duration as markets set to probe the Fed

As far as markets are concerned, the Fed’s expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year, will be enough to quash the inflation beast over the medium term.

What you will learn:

  • With the macro data now turning south, we think market’s next move will be to question the Fed’s focus on high current inflation, given the sharp expected declines now being priced in.
  • Markets will anticipate the likely Fed shift to acknowledging the real economy impact of rate hikes, and we expect our recent overweight in duration vs. equities to continue to deliver in Q4.
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