How elections across Latin America will shape our outlooks

A likely right-wing presidential victory in Bolivia could finally address macroeconomic imbalances and the impending sovereign and currency crisis. October midterms in Argentina should see President Javier Milei increase his power in congress, but overall political dynamics will be largely unchanged.

• Far-right and far-left candidates lead in Chile’s November general election, but we see no change to the country’s economic fundamentals as the Senate would counterbalance extreme policies.
• In Central America, Honduras’ November general election doesn’t bring hopes of structural changes lifting growth, while in Costa Rica it’s too early to make an accurate prediction; we don’t expect significant economic and political changes.
• We expect uncertainty and FX volatility leading up to Peru’s April 2026 general election, which is wide open, while Colombia’s May 2026 presidential election should bring tighter fiscal policy but with high downside risks and policy uncertainty.
• Brazil’s October 2026 general election is a way off, but we think Lula may seek re-election amid strong voter support. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas is a likely right-wing contender.