Commodity Key Themes 2026: Softer oil prices and firmer metals

In this report, we outline five key themes that will shape the global commodity landscape in 2026. These themes capture the structural forces, policy developments and demand shifts likely to influence markets:

1. The oil market will remain in a clear and persistent surplus. We expect supply to keep growing through 2026, led by strong additions from Latin America as major projects continue to ramp up, and as US output continues to increase.
2. Gasoline demand has already peaked across the major economies. Improving fuel efficiency is reducing consumption. Meanwhile, China and key emerging markets are set to accelerate their EV transitions, and we expect six in 10 cars sold in China in 2026 to be electric.
3. Investor-driven oscillations will shape gold’s upward trend. Gold will continue to climb, but the path is likely to be uneven.
4. External government policy will remain an important determinant of non-energy prices. US imports for steel, aluminium, lumber, and secondary copper will remain subject to steep tariffs. US soybean prices will be subject to Chinese buying activity, while government policy—rather than market forces—will be the central determinant of rare-earth and battery metal prices.
5. China will underpin resilient metals demand amid tighter supply. China will remain the driver of global commodity demand in 2026, despite its softer economic growth.

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