The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has delivered 100bps of rate cuts since its easing cycle began in August 2024.
Sanele Mjikane
Additional US tariffs have led us to downgrade our short-term outlook for the German economy, with this impact mostly concentrated in southern regions of the country.
South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has struggled over the one year of its existence, largely because of the ad hoc manner in which it was assembled.
The July baseline forecast will fully adopt the Republican tax-and-spending bill, which is poised to become law by the July 4 deadline.
We have cut our long-term trade forecasts for the EU considerably due to escalating global trade tensions.
NATO’s commitment to spend 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035 is broadly in line with the change to our defence-spending assumptions that we made in March, when we lifted core defence spending from 2% of GDP to 3% by 2030 and to 3.5% by 2035.
Last week, oil prices moderated by around 15%, as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped to reduce risk premiums.
This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies.
The German finance ministry’s draft budget for 2025 and updated medium-term fiscal plan show the government is embarking on a major spending spree to quickly reach NATO’s new spending target, modernise the country’s creaking infrastructure, and end the economy’s slumber. This broadly supports the large upward revisions to Germany’s growth outlook that we made in April.
In this report, we study the economic and societal impact of the branded clothing retail industry, including its value chain in the EU27.
In an ambitious global investigation with Proxima, we delivered insights into supply chain risk across different industrial sectors in major economies and supply chain hubs across the globe.
Governments understand the potential of data and artificial intelligence (AI), but the cost of inaction grows daily. Learn from government pioneers.
We think the damage from US tariffs on Eurozone consumer spending will be relatively mild. This is crucial for the Eurozone economic outlook, as the gradual rebound in private consumption is the only growth engine at present.
We expect 10-year bund yields to increase towards 2.8% by late 2026, as the term premium remains around 1.1% and the risk-neutral yield climbs above 1.7% over the next few quarters.
Saudi Arabia’s Q1 GDP was revised upward to 3.4% year-on-year, driven by a robust 4.9% expansion in the non-oil sector.
The report argues that enhancing project bankability should become a main policy priority as part of climate investment endeavors.
Sustainable finance is not merely a climate imperative but a development necessity. As climate risks intensify, Africa must urgently mobilise capital to advance its adaptation, mitigation, and development goals. Realising this ambition will require coordinated action across governments, financial institutions, international partners, multilateral agencies, and the private sector. With bold leadership, innovative tools, and supportive ecosystems, the continent can chart a path toward a more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable global economy.
The report assesses the economic impact of Project Kuiper’s launch partnerships in the EU.
OPEC+ is considering another 411,000 b/d output hike for July, with a decision expected on May 31. If confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive increase, reaffirming the shift from price defence to market share expansion.
The scale of the US tariffs announced on April 2 suggests the economic impact on the Eurozone will be swift. Indeed, a range of high-frequency alternative data plus more timely surveys are already indicating early signs of the reaction to the tariff hit.
