Our sentiment data-based nowcast, developed with Penta, suggests UK employment growth has continued to slow in recent months.
Sanele Mjikane
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region concluded an eventful week as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE hosted President Trump on his first major foreign trip since re-assuming office, underscoring an enduring strategic partnership.
Our proprietary Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator shows that supply stress is still low, even after the US tariff announcement on April 2.
The middle-income trap is an economic development situation in which a country’s income and economic output growth stagnate once the country is classified as a middle-income nation. This research paper explores how African nations can escape the so-called middle income trap.
OPEC+ announced a higher-than-expected oil production hike for June, adding 411,000 b/d to the market. This marks a pivot from price defence to a period of higher output.
S&P has affirmed Turkey’s BB- credit rating with a stable outlook, cautioning that recent political events could have lasting economic repercussions.
Kuwait’s inflation rate eased to 2.4% in March, while Oman’s inflation dropped to 0.5% from 1%, driven by weaker food and non-alcoholic beverage prices.
Given the unique nature of the hike in US tariffs, the size of these supply and demand shocks and the speed at which they are arriving make the precise economic implications particularly hard to pin down. Overall, however, we expect GDP growth in the US and world economy to slow sharply, but we don’t anticipate recessions in either.
Saudi Arabia’s inflation rose to 2.3% in March, its highest level since July 2023, driven mainly by a faster rise in food and beverage prices.
Despite the recent appreciation, our forecast still sees a weaker euro versus the US dollar compared to our pre-US election baseline. We think this will partially mitigate the adverse growth impact of tariffs. But extra-Eurozone exports have become less sensitive to a weaker euro over time, so currency depreciation cannot be relied on to offset the adverse impact of price shocks on Eurozone exports.
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast. Our new baseline will likely put GDP growth at just below our current forecast of 1% for this year and close to 1% for 2026, from the previous 1.5%.
The Trump administration’s imposition of a blanket 20% tariff on EU imports, in addition to the wide-ranging tariff increases imposed elsewhere, is set to weigh on European manufacturing and prolong the industrial recession.
Our initial estimates of the direct impact from the US decision to raise tariffs on imports from the EU and other countries shows it could shave 0.2ppts-0.3ppts off annual Eurozone GDP growth this year and next. But this does not include the impact that the associated trade uncertainty will have on investment, so we will likely cut our GDP growth forecast by more.
The implementation of the US “Liberation Day” tariff hikes will have a significant impact on individual sectors and firms, even in the latest, scaled back, range. Although our initial assessment suggests a global recession will likely be avoided, assessing the implications on downside risks around the baseline forecast has become increasingly important.
The US’s new 10% import tariff is unlikely to cause major disruption for GCC countries. The region sends just 3% of exports to the US, and energy shipments are exempt.
This Research Briefing is about some of the political issues flowing from the abundance in Africa of minerals critical to the green energy transition. In some places competition is violent, while in others, international cooperation is unlocking investment.
Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been among the most exposed to Russia’s war in Ukraine and will also be impacted by the nature of any ceasefire. Our baseline assumption is for ‘fragile peace’ this year, with a high likelihood of renewed hostilities.
In response to the lira sell-off last week, initial estimates suggest that the central bank of Turkey spent $12bn to defend the currency, after slipping almost 4% following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry, protectionist US trade policy, and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing sector.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
