Sanele Mjikane 
The implementation of the US “Liberation Day” tariff hikes will have a significant impact on individual sectors and firms, even in the latest, scaled back, range. Although our initial assessment suggests a global recession will likely be avoided, assessing the implications on downside risks around the baseline forecast has become increasingly important.
The US’s new 10% import tariff is unlikely to cause major disruption for GCC countries. The region sends just 3% of exports to the US, and energy shipments are exempt.
This Research Briefing is about some of the political issues flowing from the abundance in Africa of minerals critical to the green energy transition. In some places competition is violent, while in others, international cooperation is unlocking investment.
Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been among the most exposed to Russia’s war in Ukraine and will also be impacted by the nature of any ceasefire. Our baseline assumption is for ‘fragile peace’ this year, with a high likelihood of renewed hostilities.
In response to the lira sell-off last week, initial estimates suggest that the central bank of Turkey spent $12bn to defend the currency, after slipping almost 4% following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry, protectionist US trade policy, and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing sector.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
Eurozone growth in 2025 will rely on consumers. There were positive signs in H2 last year, with consumers starting to deploy their real income gains and the impact of lower rates feeding through. However, we don’t think solid H2 outturns signal a sustained increase in momentum. Instead, we expect spending growth to stabilise around the current pace, totalling 1.5% in 2025.
House prices across Europe have soared over the past decade, especially in cities. During this time, incomes in Europe have not kept pace with house price hikes on average, squeezing the purchasing power of homebuyers in many European cities.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
We have published a new report measuring the number of US jobs benefitted by TikTok. This builds upon a 2024 report which estimated the economic contribution of SMBs using TikTok
Starting in November 2024, Oxford Economics carried out a study to estimate how many people working in US businesses using TikTok directly engaged with or indirectly benefited from the platform.
Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump in the opening months of 2025, and the president has indicated that both blanket and sector-specific levies on EU good exports could be imposed within the coming weeks.
Tariffs don’t have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements by the US, followed in some cases by swift postponements, are already increasing trade uncertainty and making it less likely that companies will invest.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would provide a modest boost to EU economies, mainly due to higher military spending prompted by increased security fears and lower gas prices. But the outcome is beset by risks, particularly if the settlement is on Russia’s terms.
Oxford Economics set the stage for the year ahead, at our second Global Economic Outlook Conference, in London on Wednesday, 5 February.
This study assesses the impact KBR had on the UK economy in 2023 through its own business, as well as its ownership share of several joint ventures.
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree that the central bank’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle in the wake of the pandemic constrained it. This reinforces our view that quarterly eurozone growth will remain broadly stable at last year’s humble pace.
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven sectoral impact. Our industry-level modelling suggests that the pharmaceutical and high-tech industries would be the most affected. Similarly, smaller, less diversified economies are more exposed. We estimate that Ireland and Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will experience the largest hit.
In December 2024, Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus narrowed to SAR 15.3 billion from SAR 34.8 billion due to higher imports and lower oil exports from ongoing OPEC+ cuts.
