The increase in tariffs announced so far will add more than 10ppts to the cost of business equipment in the US.
Sally Li
The sectors most exposed to mass deportations are construction, agriculture, parts of manufacturing and several service sectors.
To really understand exposure to risk, you need to look at how a business interacts with the broader economy.
If the full April 2 tariffs are implemented alongside the additional 125% China tariff, this would push the US into a recession.
Um die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Wandels der Natur zu quantifizieren, muss man sowohl die Auswirkung von wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten auf die Natur als auch die Risiken durch die Abhängigkeit dieser Aktivitäten von Ökosystemleistungen berücksichtigen
In two or three years’ time, US imports could fall by around 15% due to discounted reciprocal tariff hikes.
Quantifying the economic impacts of nature change means considering double materiality; economic activities can both impact and depend on nature.
While the automotive tariffs will likely lead to some production being reshored to US plants, they will also raise costs for US manufacturers and households.
Trump has moved swiftly to advance a trade agenda that goes beyond what was promised in the campaign. This will have a major impact on global industrial prospects.
Our baseline forecast now assumes that European defence spending will rise to 3% of GDP by the end of the decade. This could give a growth boost to Europe’s ailing industrial sector.
We assess the implications and risks for our commodity price forecasts against the backdrop of a ‘fragile’ ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
If there’s one thing more damaging than tariffs themselves, it’s the sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty.
Sustainability is a long game. Here are four steps to ensure your sustainability programs are actually sustainable.
The impact of global tariffs, a high degree of policy uncertainty, and higher for longer interest rates are expected to hit industry—we have pushed down our 2025 global industrial production growth forecast by 0.5ppts since our Q4 2024 update.
We’ve lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff hikes.
We expect increasingly divergent growth and risk patterns across regions in 2025.
Climate and other sustainability challenges can affect the finance sector and have a material impact on returns to capital.
Oxford Economics is pleased to announce a £2 million investment in The Data City, a UK based cutting-edge real-time company classification platform.
The new US tariffs add an additional layer of drag on Asian manufacturing activities. India will be one of the least affected countries.
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal tariffs has raised the odds that of the rest of Asia will also be slapped with higher tariffs.
