Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less competitive.
Sally Li
The potential damage to large swathes of industry in Mexico and Canada from blanket US tariffs could be devastating and significantly greater than the impact on GDP as a whole.
President Trump initiated a global trade war by announcing across-the-board tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This development came sooner than we anticipated in our baseline forecast and will lead us to downgrade our 2025 global forecast.
Only one in 12 German citizens trusts the statements of German communicators – wh
The German and Italian automotive industries stand out as the most exposed to Trump’s tariff threat. Our estimates suggest that German and Italian automotive exports could fall by 7.1% and 6.6%.
We expect the chemicals sector to benefit in the short run from Trump’s re-election but face challenges over the longer term.
We modelled two scenarios to examine how different tariffs from the US could influence Mexico and the wider Latin American economy.
Global construction activity is forecast to rebound over 2025 as strength in the rest of the world offsets the ongoing Chinese real-estate downturn.
We’re optimistic about GCC’s outlook for 2025 as oil production gradually increases, providing a boost to the region’s economies.
On average, cities from across the world, with the exception of China, will see GDP growth either increase or maintain pace in 2025.
In 2025, on average we expect cities in most regions, except China, will see GDP growth accelerate or maintain pace.
Travel demand will continue to grow in 2025, despite heightened uncertainty in key demand drivers and markets.
Following prolonged weakness in 2022 and 2023, industrial growth is now regaining momentum.
Electronics and high-tech manufacturing are highly exposed to the rising risk of a major hit to their profits from protectionist policies under the incoming Trump administration.
Fundamental forces including demographics, Ai, geopolitics and climate change play a key role in building resilience into long-term CRE investment strategies.
Our research shows that advanced economies are generally better positioned for the critical megatrends. Australia, Singapore and the UK are the top three most resilient CRE markets, each with unique strengths.
The construction sector has experienced wild ups and downs in recent years, a trend that looks set to continue under the next US administration.
Slow economic growth will likely continue in Canada in 2025 as significant policy shocks threaten to reshape the landscape.
In the context of a Trump-fuelled boost for US and global GDP in 2025, four themes will be key for emerging markets.
We expect economic growth to remain modest in 2025, although we don’t think a substantial slowdown is on the way either.
The commodity markets are poised for significant shifts influenced by geopolitical developments, economic policies and global demand dynamics in 2025.
