OE Logo
Request a trial

93digital

Blog|30 April 2021

Working from home: have we got ahead of ourselves?

James Bedford
James Bedford
Lead Economist, Economic Footprint & Sustainability
Working from home: have we got ahead of ourselves?

There has been extensive debate about the future of work after the coronavirus pandemic. At the heart of this is the uncertainty over the extent to which people will work from home (WFH), and whether office working is a thing of the past. Announcements by blue-chip corporates stating they will move to WFH-only policies have attracted big headlines. Meanwhile, academics and HR professionals are busy pontificating on the best design for WFH policies so firms can continue to benefit from creative collaboration, onboarding and training new staff members, and effective performance monitoring.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

Global | World trade is staging an impressive rebound

World-trade-is-staging-an-impressive-rebound

World goods trade is staging an impressive recovery. It has now returned to its pre-pandemic trend, and our forecasts see it expanding by 10.5% this year after dropping 6.1% in 2020. Some bilateral trade relationships remain difficult, and services trade will remain a significant drag on overall trade. But the picture is considerably better than we feared it could be nine to twelve months ago.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

Global | World trade is staging an impressive rebound

World-trade-is-staging-an-impressive-rebound

World goods trade is staging an impressive recovery. It has now returned to its pre-pandemic trend, and our forecasts see it expanding by 10.5% this year after dropping 6.1% in 2020. Some bilateral trade relationships remain difficult, and services trade will remain a significant drag on overall trade. But the picture is considerably better than we feared it could be nine to twelve months ago.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

UK | Positive news points to MPC sticking with no change

Positive-news-points-to-MPC-sticking-with-no-change

Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote 
unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also push
up its forecast for GDP growth.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

UK | Positive news points to MPC sticking with no change

Positive-news-points-to-MPC-sticking-with-no-change

Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote 
unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also push
up its forecast for GDP growth.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

MENA | GCC restricts travel further; five years of Vision 2030

GCC-restricts-travel-further-five-years-of-Vision-2030

The OPEC+ meeting on 27 April saw oil producers stick to agreements made
earlier in the month. It is expected that the consortium will gradually lift oil
output as global demand recovers from the pandemic, bringing around 2.1m b/d back to the market in May-July, easing cutbacks to 5.8m b/d.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

MENA | GCC restricts travel further; five years of Vision 2030

GCC-restricts-travel-further-five-years-of-Vision-2030

The OPEC+ meeting on 27 April saw oil producers stick to agreements made
earlier in the month. It is expected that the consortium will gradually lift oil
output as global demand recovers from the pandemic, bringing around 2.1m b/d back to the market in May-July, easing cutbacks to 5.8m b/d.

Read more

Blog|29 April 2021

In the 5th Industrial Revolution, creativity must meet technology

Kiki Sondh
Kiki Sondh
Economist
In the 5th Industrial Revolution, creativity must meet technology

The health crisis has wreaked havoc on global supply chains. Lockdowns, restrictions on movement and quarantine regulations have disrupted conventional working practices and put pressure on manufacturers to adapt industrial processes to stay afloat. The tables have turned from survival of the fittest to survival of the quickest—those who wish to remain competitive must embrace the latest technologies, adjust their business models, and innovate.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker advances toward its pre-Covid level

Ipad Frame (33)

The US Recovery Tracker rose 0.8ppts to 91.2 in the week ended April 16. Improvement in four of the six components kept momentum solid, though the gain was softer than the 1.4ppts of average weekly growth since early March.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker advances toward its pre-Covid level

Ipad Frame (33)

The US Recovery Tracker rose 0.8ppts to 91.2 in the week ended April 16. Improvement in four of the six components kept momentum solid, though the gain was softer than the 1.4ppts of average weekly growth since early March.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 28, 2021

US | City Economic Forecast: Atlanta

CEF Atlanta March 2021 - iPad

Atlanta has recovered 52% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1, which was in line with the US recovery rate of 52%. Atlanta is expected to see job growth of 2.6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 7.3% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. With a diverse economy that had seen sizable growth across a number of sectors including education, Atlanta is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Longer term, Atlanta is expected to see net 2019-2025 job growth of 3.2% which ranks 23rd of the top 51 metros. Its net GDP growth rate of 13.1% ranks 15th.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 28, 2021

US | City Economic Forecast: Atlanta

CEF Atlanta March 2021 - iPad

Atlanta has recovered 52% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1, which was in line with the US recovery rate of 52%. Atlanta is expected to see job growth of 2.6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 7.3% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. With a diverse economy that had seen sizable growth across a number of sectors including education, Atlanta is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q3 2022. Longer term, Atlanta is expected to see net 2019-2025 job growth of 3.2% which ranks 23rd of the top 51 metros. Its net GDP growth rate of 13.1% ranks 15th.

Read more

Blog|28 April 2021

Risks and challenges to an “infrastructure-led” recovery

Risks and challenges to an “infrastructure-led” recovery

In a recent blog post we highlighted the role that public infrastructure investment can play in leading and sustaining economic recovery. Spending on “well chosen” productive infrastructure projects (where long-term economic benefits exceed costs) not only lifts domestic demand and employment in the short run, but also offers competitiveness and productivity benefits, effectively raising the long-term “speed limit” for economic growth.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

Eurozone | As vaccinations gain speed, upside risk is on the rise

Ipad Frame - As-vaccinations-gain-speed-upside-risk-is-on-the-rise

The EU’s vaccine rollout will continue picking up steam in coming months after a lacklustre performance in Q1. Supply constraints have now been largely resolved, thanks to boosted production capacity. Supply is now also well diversified and therefore less susceptible to disruptions. Additionally, improvements in logistics will see further increases in daily vaccination rates.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

Eurozone | As vaccinations gain speed, upside risk is on the rise

Ipad Frame - As-vaccinations-gain-speed-upside-risk-is-on-the-rise

The EU’s vaccine rollout will continue picking up steam in coming months after a lacklustre performance in Q1. Supply constraints have now been largely resolved, thanks to boosted production capacity. Supply is now also well diversified and therefore less susceptible to disruptions. Additionally, improvements in logistics will see further increases in daily vaccination rates.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

European Cities Normality Tracker – April 2021

cities

Our European Cities Normality Tracker shows the extent to which cities across Europe are moving back towards ‘normality’ following the Covid-19 pandemic. It takes into account infection rates, evidence of mobility (whether
people are at their workplaces or visiting retailers), and what has happened to unemployment.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

European Cities Normality Tracker – April 2021

cities

Our European Cities Normality Tracker shows the extent to which cities across Europe are moving back towards ‘normality’ following the Covid-19 pandemic. It takes into account infection rates, evidence of mobility (whether
people are at their workplaces or visiting retailers), and what has happened to unemployment.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

UK | The economics of Scottish independence

The economics of Scottish independence

A win for pro-independence parties at Scottish elections on May 6 will put Scotland’s exit from the UK back on the political agenda. But in our view, while the prospect of independence is real, it’s not the most likely outcome. A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

UK | The economics of Scottish independence

The economics of Scottish independence

A win for pro-independence parties at Scottish elections on May 6 will put Scotland’s exit from the UK back on the political agenda. But in our view, while the prospect of independence is real, it’s not the most likely outcome. A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

US | City Economic Forecast Washington D.C.

City economic forecast Washington

Washington has recovered 49% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1. This was below the US recovery rate of 52%. Washington is expected to see job growth of 2.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 6.7% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022. With a return of its university students and domestic tourists by the fall, Washington is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q2 2022.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

US | City Economic Forecast Washington D.C.

City economic forecast Washington

Washington has recovered 49% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1. This was below the US recovery rate of 52%. Washington is expected to see job growth of 2.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 6.7% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022. With a return of its university students and domestic tourists by the fall, Washington is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q2 2022.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Downside risks ease

Rising global Covid infections remain a key focus, but the recent surge is not automatically grounds for us to slash our near-term forecasts. Indeed, the strength of the initial business and consumer surveys in April potentially lessens the downside risks to the near-term economic outlook.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Downside risks ease

Rising global Covid infections remain a key focus, but the recent surge is not automatically grounds for us to slash our near-term forecasts. Indeed, the strength of the initial business and consumer surveys in April potentially lessens the downside risks to the near-term economic outlook.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Global Industry | Spiking producer prices will subside before long

Research Briefing Global Industry | Spiking producer prices will subside before long

Rising raw materials prices, supply-chain disruptions, and surging shipping costs are raising expenses for producers, boosting near-term global inflationary pressures. We believe this burst of producer price inflation will prove temporary.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Global Industry | Spiking producer prices will subside before long

Research Briefing Global Industry | Spiking producer prices will subside before long

Rising raw materials prices, supply-chain disruptions, and surging shipping costs are raising expenses for producers, boosting near-term global inflationary pressures. We believe this burst of producer price inflation will prove temporary.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Australia | A structural measure of the budget balance

RB2704 iPad frame

The budget deficit blew out in FY20 and will widen further in FY21 due to the
government’s efforts to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 recession. Headline measures of the budget deficits portray the scope of the response but have little value in depicting the longer-run sustainability of the budget position.

We have developed a structural measure of the budget deficit that accounts for large swings in key commodity and domestic prices and the economy’s position in the business cycle. This measure is much more informative about whether current fiscal settings are sustainable and will not result in an explosive trajectory for debt, in the long run.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

Australia | A structural measure of the budget balance

RB2704 iPad frame

The budget deficit blew out in FY20 and will widen further in FY21 due to the
government’s efforts to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 recession. Headline measures of the budget deficits portray the scope of the response but have little value in depicting the longer-run sustainability of the budget position.

We have developed a structural measure of the budget deficit that accounts for large swings in key commodity and domestic prices and the economy’s position in the business cycle. This measure is much more informative about whether current fiscal settings are sustainable and will not result in an explosive trajectory for debt, in the long run.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Global | Ranking overall Covid damage: deaths, debt, GDP, markets

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (27)

According to our pandemic-impact scorecard, EMs on average have been most afflicted, followed by frontier markets, with advanced economies suffering the least. But averages mask huge differences across economies on each measure.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Global | Ranking overall Covid damage: deaths, debt, GDP, markets

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (27)

According to our pandemic-impact scorecard, EMs on average have been most afflicted, followed by frontier markets, with advanced economies suffering the least. But averages mask huge differences across economies on each measure.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

UK | Buoyant consumers fuel a strong recovery

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (37)

Retail sales surged in March, even though many physical stores remained closed, while the reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor hospitality in England on April 12 appears to have generated a surge in spending over the past couple of weeks. The strength of this reaction to restrictions being relaxed adds credence to our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth. And there is still little evidence that the recovery is likely to be thrown off course by either a spike in unemployment or a sustained pickup in inflation.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

UK | Buoyant consumers fuel a strong recovery

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (37)

Retail sales surged in March, even though many physical stores remained closed, while the reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor hospitality in England on April 12 appears to have generated a surge in spending over the past couple of weeks. The strength of this reaction to restrictions being relaxed adds credence to our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth. And there is still little evidence that the recovery is likely to be thrown off course by either a spike in unemployment or a sustained pickup in inflation.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Eurozone | What’s next for the EU’s fiscal framework

Since the start of the pandemic, eurozone countries have been able to relax fiscal policy without worrying about the eurozone’s fiscal rules. But what will happen when the rules are reinstated, most likely in 2023, isn’t clear.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Eurozone | What’s next for the EU’s fiscal framework

Since the start of the pandemic, eurozone countries have been able to relax fiscal policy without worrying about the eurozone’s fiscal rules. But what will happen when the rules are reinstated, most likely in 2023, isn’t clear.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Global | Rebounding global trade has lots of beneficiaries

Global trade is recovering so strongly that infrastructure seems unable to support it. As shipping costs reach new highs, reports of delays still aren’t subsiding. Nevertheless, most countries manage to fare well in trade, both last year and now that the trade is on the rise again. China was the first to reap the benefits, but strong commodity prices have softened the blow for many vulnerable economies.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Global | Rebounding global trade has lots of beneficiaries

Global trade is recovering so strongly that infrastructure seems unable to support it. As shipping costs reach new highs, reports of delays still aren’t subsiding. Nevertheless, most countries manage to fare well in trade, both last year and now that the trade is on the rise again. China was the first to reap the benefits, but strong commodity prices have softened the blow for many vulnerable economies.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Country Insight: Egypt

Country Insight Egypt

The Egyptian economic recovery is struggling to gain traction following a robust performance in 2020. We expect the economy to expand by just over 3% in 2021, with a softening in consumer demand following a remarkable, policy-induced performance over the past two years. However, Egypt is still host to some of the continent’s brightest consumer spending hotspots and has seen an improvement in its investment environment due to favourable reforms.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

Country Insight: Egypt

Country Insight Egypt

The Egyptian economic recovery is struggling to gain traction following a robust performance in 2020. We expect the economy to expand by just over 3% in 2021, with a softening in consumer demand following a remarkable, policy-induced performance over the past two years. However, Egypt is still host to some of the continent’s brightest consumer spending hotspots and has seen an improvement in its investment environment due to favourable reforms.

Read more