Global | Ranking overall Covid damage: deaths, debt, GDP, markets
According to our pandemic-impact scorecard, EMs on average have been most afflicted, followed by frontier markets, with advanced economies suffering the least. But averages mask huge differences across economies on each measure.
What you will learn from this report:
- Our scorecard is based on four key metrics: Covid mortality rates, GDP
changes, government debt, and equity and forex market performance.
- EMs and FMs have endured larger declines in activity and financial markets. In contrast, AEs have suffered the highest recorded mortality rates and biggest increases in debt-to-GDP ratios.
- To some extent this reflects AEs’ deeper access to fiscal resources that helped them cushion the impact on activity.
Terms of trade will lift income but challenge Australian households
Australia's terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) increased sharply through the pandemic due to a combination of strong demand and disrupted supply in markets for Australia's major commodity exports. We had anticipated a correction in the terms of trade over 2022, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine and associated volatility in commodities markets has seen the terms of trade spike again.Find Out More
Eurozone: ECB minutes indicate that July rate hike is a near-certainty
The minutes from the April ECB meeting confirm the hawkish tilt initiated a few months ago continues to gain momentum. With a majority of the council increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook, this makes an interest rate hike already in July almost certain. This should not come as a surprise, however, as recent developments render hawks' case arguably easier to make.Find Out More