Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

UK | The economics of Scottish independence

The economics of Scottish independence

A win for pro-independence parties at Scottish elections on May 6 will put Scotland’s exit from the UK back on the political agenda. But in our view, while the prospect of independence is real, it’s not the most likely outcome. A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.

What you will learn from this report:

  • A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.
  • Should Scotland secede, the UK would be shorn of around one-twelfth of its GDP.
  • For Scotland, independence would lumber its small economy with a significant level of public debt.
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