Research Briefing | Apr 27, 2021

UK | The economics of Scottish independence

The economics of Scottish independence

A win for pro-independence parties at Scottish elections on May 6 will put Scotland’s exit from the UK back on the political agenda. But in our view, while the prospect of independence is real, it’s not the most likely outcome. A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.

What you will learn from this report:

  • A nationalist victory wouldn’t assure a referendum, as the UK government remains opposed.
  • Should Scotland secede, the UK would be shorn of around one-twelfth of its GDP.
  • For Scotland, independence would lumber its small economy with a significant level of public debt.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Sterling’s woes, Kwarteng’s vows, Bailey in the middle

The negative market reaction to last week's fiscal announcements appears to be a function of doubts over the credibility of the UK government's long-term fiscal plans. Though we think the structural position is not as bad as last Friday's drop in asset prices implies, it's clear the government will struggle to retain credibility if it fails to engage with market concerns.

Find Out More
Tokyo, Japan

Post

BoJ to look through a temporary decline in monetary base

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at today's (22nd Sep) meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates, despite another wave of yen weakening and upward pressures on JGB yields. 

Find Out More