OE Logo
Request a trial

93digital

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

India | Worsening health conditions crystalise downside risks

Ipad Frame (30)

The rapidly swelling second wave has taken a big toll on the country’s health infrastructure. The health system has collapsed in the worst hit states, with even the national capital, Delhi, facing acute shortage of oxygen and Covid-19 hospital beds. While the official mortality rate has edged lower, it masks a rapidly rising death count. Deaths are now doubling every ten days (as opposed to an average of 29 days in the first wave) and even this figure is likely buttressed by delayed or under-reporting of deaths.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

India | Worsening health conditions crystalise downside risks

Ipad Frame (30)

The rapidly swelling second wave has taken a big toll on the country’s health infrastructure. The health system has collapsed in the worst hit states, with even the national capital, Delhi, facing acute shortage of oxygen and Covid-19 hospital beds. While the official mortality rate has edged lower, it masks a rapidly rising death count. Deaths are now doubling every ten days (as opposed to an average of 29 days in the first wave) and even this figure is likely buttressed by delayed or under-reporting of deaths.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

APAC | ASEAN tracker shows balanced risks for Q1 GDP

Ipad Frame (31)

Tracker data suggests that growth across the ASEAN bloc improved to a 1.5% y/y contraction in February following a 2.9% decline in January. The positive momentum in growth likely continued in March due to easing restrictions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand at the end of February. We estimate that ASEAN-6 GDP growth rose to -1.5% y/y in Q1 2021 f rom -3% in Q4 2020.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2021

APAC | ASEAN tracker shows balanced risks for Q1 GDP

Ipad Frame (31)

Tracker data suggests that growth across the ASEAN bloc improved to a 1.5% y/y contraction in February following a 2.9% decline in January. The positive momentum in growth likely continued in March due to easing restrictions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand at the end of February. We estimate that ASEAN-6 GDP growth rose to -1.5% y/y in Q1 2021 f rom -3% in Q4 2020.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Egypt

Egypt has proven to have one of the most resilient emerging market economies on the globe in the face of the crisis sparked by Covid-19, but the economy is struggling to gain traction this year. Meanwhile, signs of a third wave of Covid-19 infections are emerging, which, coinciding with the holy month of Ramadan, could necessitate a tightening in restrictions in coming weeks.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Egypt

Egypt has proven to have one of the most resilient emerging market economies on the globe in the face of the crisis sparked by Covid-19, but the economy is struggling to gain traction this year. Meanwhile, signs of a third wave of Covid-19 infections are emerging, which, coinciding with the holy month of Ramadan, could necessitate a tightening in restrictions in coming weeks.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2021

MENA | Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections

Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections

Attempts to salvage the JCPOA have intensified as discussions through European intermediaries kicked off in Vienna on 6 April. Negotiators are already drafting proposals for the US and Iran to return to compliance. With presidential elections set to take place on 18 June and a sanctioned hardliner increasingly likely to win, we expect an agreement to be reached before then. However, failure to strike a deal before the elections may undo any diplomatic breakthrough achieved.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2021

MENA | Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections

Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections

Attempts to salvage the JCPOA have intensified as discussions through European intermediaries kicked off in Vienna on 6 April. Negotiators are already drafting proposals for the US and Iran to return to compliance. With presidential elections set to take place on 18 June and a sanctioned hardliner increasingly likely to win, we expect an agreement to be reached before then. However, failure to strike a deal before the elections may undo any diplomatic breakthrough achieved.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 23, 2021

South Korea | After a weak Q1, the won should post modest gains

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (26)

While we expect broad US dollar strength in the rest of 2021, we still see
modest gains in the Korean won (KRW) from current levels. This will come from a real yield advantage over the US, a positive export outlook, and valuations that don’t look stretched.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 23, 2021

South Korea | After a weak Q1, the won should post modest gains

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (26)

While we expect broad US dollar strength in the rest of 2021, we still see
modest gains in the Korean won (KRW) from current levels. This will come from a real yield advantage over the US, a positive export outlook, and valuations that don’t look stretched.

Read more

US dollars
Blog|23 April 2021

Quantitative Easing: Is the cure worse than the disease?

James Nixon
James Nixon
Head of Climate Change Macroeconomics
Quantitative Easing: Is the cure worse than the disease?

The financial market volatility that has already marked the early stages of the COVID-19 economic recovery underscores how much the financial system and investor base have become hooked on central bank support. In this context, non-standard monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) have become so much a part of central banks’ regular tool kit that it is debateable whether the sobriquet “non-standard” still applies. While undoubtedly a key part of central banks’ armoury to fight financial crises and fulfil their role as a lender of last resort, when sustained persistently into the medium term, QE has a number of distinctly negative side effects that raise the question of how central banks exit from QE—and whether ultimately the cure is worse than the recession it was meant to forestall.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

US | Recovery Tracker blossoms as temperatures rise

US Recovery Tracker blossoms as temperatures rise - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 90.2 in the week ended April 9, its first reading above 90 since March 2020 and its seventh consecutive weekly gain. Progress was broad-based despite a slight worsening of health conditions as improving economic activity and rising vaccinations offset the climb in cases.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

US | Recovery Tracker blossoms as temperatures rise

US Recovery Tracker blossoms as temperatures rise - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 90.2 in the week ended April 9, its first reading above 90 since March 2020 and its seventh consecutive weekly gain. Progress was broad-based despite a slight worsening of health conditions as improving economic activity and rising vaccinations offset the climb in cases.

Read more

An analysis of the economic impact of BAT’s alternative nicotine products in the UK.

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

MENA | GCC aims to cushion virus damage; Saudi inflation

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (23)

The current spread of Covid-19 in the region has yet to be brought under
control, leaving us cautious over the prospects for near-term recovery. Many
governments have tightened restrictions and limited gatherings during the
month of Ramadan, but the new daily case toll will probably stay high until late May.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

MENA | GCC aims to cushion virus damage; Saudi inflation

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (23)

The current spread of Covid-19 in the region has yet to be brought under
control, leaving us cautious over the prospects for near-term recovery. Many
governments have tightened restrictions and limited gatherings during the
month of Ramadan, but the new daily case toll will probably stay high until late May.

Read more

Ungated Post|22 April 2021

Podcast: The economic costs of decoupling from China

Podcast: The economic costs of decoupling from China

​Alexander Wyatt-Mackle, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics joins Christopher Marquis, Cornell professor and host of the China Corner Office Podcast from SubChina Live to discuss the US-China economic relationship. 

Read more

← Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 22, 2021

UK | Inflation set for a steep, but short-lived, acceleration

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (36)

March’s pickup in inflation will mark the beginning of a sharp rise over the next few months, as sizeable base effects combine with higher fuel and domestic energy prices. We expect the CPI rate to reach 1.5% as soon as April.

Read more

← Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 22, 2021

UK | Inflation set for a steep, but short-lived, acceleration

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (36)

March’s pickup in inflation will mark the beginning of a sharp rise over the next few months, as sizeable base effects combine with higher fuel and domestic energy prices. We expect the CPI rate to reach 1.5% as soon as April.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 21, 2021

Sweden | Country Economic Forecast April

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)

Sweden’s economy looks increasingly resilient to the latest round of activity 
restrictions. Despite stricter lockdown measures and a slow vaccine roll-out, 
Swedish consumers are starting to spend and businesses are ramping up
production. We now expect GDP to have risen in Q1, rather than contracting,
before a sharp acceleration in activity over the summer as vaccines become
widespread.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 21, 2021

Sweden | Country Economic Forecast April

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)

Sweden’s economy looks increasingly resilient to the latest round of activity 
restrictions. Despite stricter lockdown measures and a slow vaccine roll-out, 
Swedish consumers are starting to spend and businesses are ramping up
production. We now expect GDP to have risen in Q1, rather than contracting,
before a sharp acceleration in activity over the summer as vaccines become
widespread.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

MENA | Kuwait is struggling to balance a fine fiscal line

Kuwait is struggling to balance a fine fiscal line

In line with trends seen across the GCC, the twin shock of the coronavirus
pandemic and low oil prices has put extra pressure on an already strained
government balance sheet in Kuwait. The budget deficit in 2020 is estimated at almost 29% of GDP, with oil receipts (almost 90% of revenues) plummeting by over 32%.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

MENA | Kuwait is struggling to balance a fine fiscal line

Kuwait is struggling to balance a fine fiscal line

In line with trends seen across the GCC, the twin shock of the coronavirus
pandemic and low oil prices has put extra pressure on an already strained
government balance sheet in Kuwait. The budget deficit in 2020 is estimated at almost 29% of GDP, with oil receipts (almost 90% of revenues) plummeting by over 32%.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

US | Green shoots of recovery emerge with vaccine rollout

Green shoots of recovery emerge with vaccine rollout - iPad

The next stage of the US travel recovery has commenced. After a challenging fall and winter, signals are turning positive. Travel activity picked up in March, with spring break leisure travel a key contributor, and forward-looking booking activity has quickened, with gains in hotel bookings and air travel. The improvement represents the first substantive gains since the easing of lockdown protocols last year (May/June 2020).

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

US | Green shoots of recovery emerge with vaccine rollout

Green shoots of recovery emerge with vaccine rollout - iPad

The next stage of the US travel recovery has commenced. After a challenging fall and winter, signals are turning positive. Travel activity picked up in March, with spring break leisure travel a key contributor, and forward-looking booking activity has quickened, with gains in hotel bookings and air travel. The improvement represents the first substantive gains since the easing of lockdown protocols last year (May/June 2020).

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

US | Biden’s American Jobs Plan will provide a structural lift

Biden’s American Jobs Plan will provide a structural lift - iPad

After spending over $5tn in cumulative cyclical fiscal relief, Congress is now contemplating President Joe Biden’s structural stimulus package worth $2.7tn in infrastructure, manufacturing, and health care outlays, as well as tax credits for housing and green energy investments.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

US | Biden’s American Jobs Plan will provide a structural lift

Biden’s American Jobs Plan will provide a structural lift - iPad

After spending over $5tn in cumulative cyclical fiscal relief, Congress is now contemplating President Joe Biden’s structural stimulus package worth $2.7tn in infrastructure, manufacturing, and health care outlays, as well as tax credits for housing and green energy investments.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: A troubling V-shaped recovery

In an unwelcome development, global Covid case numbers are rising sharply again. Although this adds downside risk to our economic outlook, we aren’t downgrading our GDP growth forecasts for this and later years because upside risks balance the outlook.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: A troubling V-shaped recovery

In an unwelcome development, global Covid case numbers are rising sharply again. Although this adds downside risk to our economic outlook, we aren’t downgrading our GDP growth forecasts for this and later years because upside risks balance the outlook.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

Indonesia | Why the rupiah slide won’t turn into a freefall

Ipad Frame (28)

Asian currencies have broadly struggled in recent months due to the strengthening of the US dollar on the back of favorable growth and rate differentials. These pressures are likely to persist. Indeed, we expect US President Biden’s extraordinary fiscal stimulus will support a 3% y/y trade-weighted dollar appreciation by year-end.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

Indonesia | Why the rupiah slide won’t turn into a freefall

Ipad Frame (28)

Asian currencies have broadly struggled in recent months due to the strengthening of the US dollar on the back of favorable growth and rate differentials. These pressures are likely to persist. Indeed, we expect US President Biden’s extraordinary fiscal stimulus will support a 3% y/y trade-weighted dollar appreciation by year-end.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

US | City Economic Forecast: Boston

City Economic Forecast - Boston March 2021 - iPad

Boston has recovered 49% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1. This was below the US recovery rate of 52%. Boston is expected to see job growth of 3.5% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 7.5% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022. With its dense urban core, Boston was hit hard by the pandemic and is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q4 2023. Longer term, Boston is expected to see net 2019-2025 job growth of 1.3% which ranks 35th of the top 51 metros. Its net GDP growth rate of 12% ranks 19th.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing

US | City Economic Forecast: Boston

City Economic Forecast - Boston March 2021 - iPad

Boston has recovered 49% of its lost jobs from the pandemic as of Q1. This was below the US recovery rate of 52%. Boston is expected to see job growth of 3.5% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, while GDP is expected to grow 7.5% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022. With its dense urban core, Boston was hit hard by the pandemic and is expected to recover its lost jobs in Q4 2023. Longer term, Boston is expected to see net 2019-2025 job growth of 1.3% which ranks 35th of the top 51 metros. Its net GDP growth rate of 12% ranks 19th.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 19, 2021

Africa | Africa Travel Recovery, Opportunities & Risks (April)

Africa_Travel_Recovery_Opportunities_Risks_April ipad

Africa’s travel industry has still been devastated by the ongoing restrictions and reduced tourist sentiment from the global health crisis. Recovery in travel is set to begin in 2021 but international arrivals are still expected to remain 56% below 2019 levels in 2021, with a return to pre-crisis levels not expected until 2024. And, the emergence of new, more transmissible mutations of the virus has increased the downside risks for the travel recovery. 

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 19, 2021

Africa | Africa Travel Recovery, Opportunities & Risks (April)

Africa_Travel_Recovery_Opportunities_Risks_April ipad

Africa’s travel industry has still been devastated by the ongoing restrictions and reduced tourist sentiment from the global health crisis. Recovery in travel is set to begin in 2021 but international arrivals are still expected to remain 56% below 2019 levels in 2021, with a return to pre-crisis levels not expected until 2024. And, the emergence of new, more transmissible mutations of the virus has increased the downside risks for the travel recovery. 

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 19, 2021

UK | The economy takes a small step to recovery

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (34)

Although February saw GDP make only a modest advance in exiting a Covidshaped hole, the month’s 0.4% m/m rise in output should herald the start of an increasingly rapid rebound in activity.
Notably, the reopening of non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality on April 12 is set to deliver a much stronger rise in GDP this month. Meanwhile, we learnt that the MPC will soon lose Andrew Haldane, its most bullish member.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 19, 2021

UK | The economy takes a small step to recovery

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (34)

Although February saw GDP make only a modest advance in exiting a Covidshaped hole, the month’s 0.4% m/m rise in output should herald the start of an increasingly rapid rebound in activity.
Notably, the reopening of non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality on April 12 is set to deliver a much stronger rise in GDP this month. Meanwhile, we learnt that the MPC will soon lose Andrew Haldane, its most bullish member.

Read more