MENA | Iran aims to wrap up JCPOA return before elections
Attempts to salvage the JCPOA have intensified as discussions through European intermediaries kicked off in Vienna on 6 April. Negotiators are already drafting proposals for the US and Iran to return to compliance. With presidential elections set to take place on 18 June and a sanctioned hardliner increasingly likely to win, we expect an agreement to be reached before then. However, failure to strike a deal before the elections may undo any diplomatic breakthrough achieved.
What you will learn:
- Using the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (GEM), we simulate the potential impact under two scenarios: a full return to the JCPOA by end-Q2 2021 and a lighter scenario envisaging reinstatement of some export waivers under an interim deal prior to an expected hardliner victory.
- We estimate a return to the JCPOA could boost Iran’s GDP growth in 2021 to 6%, up 3.4pp from our baseline and surpassing pre-sanction levels by 2023.
- Despite fears after an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility last week, prompting Iran to enrich uranium levels to 60%, significant progress has been made in a bid to revive the JCPOA following proximity discussions in Vienna on 6 April.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Global Private equity real estate fund maturities spur asset sales
We expect the significant increases in fund maturities, spurred by capital raised over the past decade, to exert upward pressure on the rate of asset disposals as the funds approach the end of their lifecycles.
Find Out More
Post
Eurozone: Little sign of harm from the Red Sea disruptions
The impact of Red Sea shipping disruption on the eurozone economy continues to be limited, in line with our baseline view. Our new Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator suggests that supply pressures have returned to normal following a period of easing in 2023.
Find Out More