Research Briefing | Apr 19, 2021

UK | The economy takes a small step to recovery

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (34)

Although February saw GDP make only a modest advance in exiting a Covidshaped hole, the month’s 0.4% m/m rise in output should herald the start of an increasingly rapid rebound in activity.
Notably, the reopening of non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality on April 12 is set to deliver a much stronger rise in GDP this month. Meanwhile, we learnt that the MPC will soon lose Andrew Haldane, its most bullish member.

What you will learn from this report:

  • February saw activity begin to make up the loss caused by lockdown.
  • The effect of April 12’s partial reopening was evident in some high-frequency data.
  • Online job vacancies have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
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