Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global
Global bond yields have risen sharply over recent weeks to become more in line with fair value. Previous episodes have demonstrated that what starts as a benign correction could evolve into a tantrum with wider consequences. Our modelling of a severe market scenario finds a significant impact on growth. US GDP would be 1% lower by 2022, and world GDP would be down by 0.5%. But in the context of an extremely rapid recovery, this is not overly concerning.
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