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Global: The global consequences of rising US bond yields

Global bond yields have risen sharply over recent weeks to become more in line with fair value. Previous episodes have demonstrated that what starts as a benign correction could evolve into a tantrum with wider consequences. Our modelling of a severe market scenario finds a significant impact on growth. US GDP would be 1% lower by 2022, and world GDP would be down by 0.5%. But in the context of an extremely rapid recovery, this is not overly concerning.

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