Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: A troubling V-shaped recovery

In an unwelcome development, global Covid case numbers are rising sharply again. Although this adds downside risk to our economic outlook, we aren’t downgrading our GDP growth forecasts for this and later years because upside risks balance the outlook.

The rise in Covid-19 cases has coincided with increased mobility and may therefore be an unfortunate side effect of a return to more normal levels of activity.

Compared to the peak earlier this year, the rise in case numbers looks less marked when weighted by GDP rather than population size. While this third peak is clearly a huge public health concern, it may be less economically significant at a global level.

Recent data confirm that the US economy is booming, which may help to counterbalance economic weakness emanating from the main coronavirus hotspots.

 

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