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Research Briefing | May 11, 2021

The slow road to recovery for city tourism

The slow road to recovery for city tourism

The pandemic had a devastating impact on tourism in 2020 and we expect that 2021 will be another challenging year as vaccination roll-outs have been slower than expected and renewed waves of infection have taken hold. International visitor arrivals to cities covered in our Global City Travel (GCT) service are set to be 57% below 2019 levels in 2021 while domestic visitor arrivals will remain 10% below pre-crisis levels.

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Research Briefing | May 11, 2021

The slow road to recovery for city tourism

The slow road to recovery for city tourism

The pandemic had a devastating impact on tourism in 2020 and we expect that 2021 will be another challenging year as vaccination roll-outs have been slower than expected and renewed waves of infection have taken hold. International visitor arrivals to cities covered in our Global City Travel (GCT) service are set to be 57% below 2019 levels in 2021 while domestic visitor arrivals will remain 10% below pre-crisis levels.

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Research Briefing | May 11, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Why rising inflation isn’t alarming

Higher headline and core inflation in advanced economies is on the way in H2 as a result of factors including rising commodity prices and supply-chain problems. But notions that pressures like this have never been seen before or that inflation will strengthen further in 2022 are wide of the mark.

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Research Briefing | May 11, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Why rising inflation isn’t alarming

Higher headline and core inflation in advanced economies is on the way in H2 as a result of factors including rising commodity prices and supply-chain problems. But notions that pressures like this have never been seen before or that inflation will strengthen further in 2022 are wide of the mark.

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In this study we examine, for the first time, the wider value of the British Army, over-and-above its role in protecting the nation.

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Research Briefing | May 10, 2021

MENA | Is the GCC facing up to its climate change quandary?

Ipad Frame - MENA-Is-the-GCC-facing-up-to-its-climate-change-quandary

Climate change is an increasingly important issue in the GCC region and is receiving a sharper focus in growth and diversification plans in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The region has several competitive advantages, not least in relation to solar and hydrogen power, that suggest it need not just fall victim to declining oil demand.

What you will learn:

  • The region needs to be fearful of rising temperatures. Oxford Economics’ research shows that the economic impact of global warming rises for countries that are already among the hottest in the world. The GCC belongs to this group.
  • Although dependent on oil and a manufacturing sector based on energy competitiveness, the GCC economies are undergoing transition and have longheld plans to diversify.
  • This means ambition and spending could be higher in the GCC than in other parts of the world, which could enable rapid progress in new sectors. This presents opportunities but also carries risks – GCC countries need to get it right or risk becoming old and dusty oil states.

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Research Briefing | May 10, 2021

MENA | Is the GCC facing up to its climate change quandary?

Ipad Frame - MENA-Is-the-GCC-facing-up-to-its-climate-change-quandary

Climate change is an increasingly important issue in the GCC region and is receiving a sharper focus in growth and diversification plans in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The region has several competitive advantages, not least in relation to solar and hydrogen power, that suggest it need not just fall victim to declining oil demand.

What you will learn:

  • The region needs to be fearful of rising temperatures. Oxford Economics’ research shows that the economic impact of global warming rises for countries that are already among the hottest in the world. The GCC belongs to this group.
  • Although dependent on oil and a manufacturing sector based on energy competitiveness, the GCC economies are undergoing transition and have longheld plans to diversify.
  • This means ambition and spending could be higher in the GCC than in other parts of the world, which could enable rapid progress in new sectors. This presents opportunities but also carries risks – GCC countries need to get it right or risk becoming old and dusty oil states.

Read more

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Research Briefing | May 7, 2021

UK | Brighter outlook raises risks of an earlier rate lift-off

Ipad Frame (17)-2

At May’s MPC meeting the committee revised up its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 significantly and laid out its plans to slow the pace of asset purchases. Andrew Haldane broke ranks by voting to cut the target for QE.
A tapering of QE had already been floated by the MPC, so we don’t attach much significance to the decision. But with the economy seen to be running hotter, and unemployment peaking lower, than previously expected, the risk that monetary policy will be tightened earlier than we anticipated has increased.

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Research Briefing | May 7, 2021

UK | Brighter outlook raises risks of an earlier rate lift-off

Ipad Frame (17)-2

At May’s MPC meeting the committee revised up its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 significantly and laid out its plans to slow the pace of asset purchases. Andrew Haldane broke ranks by voting to cut the target for QE.
A tapering of QE had already been floated by the MPC, so we don’t attach much significance to the decision. But with the economy seen to be running hotter, and unemployment peaking lower, than previously expected, the risk that monetary policy will be tightened earlier than we anticipated has increased.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker takes a breather as vaccinations slow

recoverytrackeripadfram0705

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.6ppts to 90.7 in the week ended April 23, its first decline in eight weeks, as three of the six subcomponents fell. This shows that while the recovery is picking up steam, it won’t be without setbacks.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker takes a breather as vaccinations slow

recoverytrackeripadfram0705

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.6ppts to 90.7 in the week ended April 23, its first decline in eight weeks, as three of the six subcomponents fell. This shows that while the recovery is picking up steam, it won’t be without setbacks.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

LATAM | Recovery Tracker jumps on Brazil’s big rebound

Recovery Tracker jumps on Brazil’s big rebound - iPad

Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) jumped 1.9pts during the week
ending April 30, after the previous week’s 0.1pt drop was revised to a modest
0.2pts gain. Mobility picked up everywhere but Colombia and Peru.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

LATAM | Recovery Tracker jumps on Brazil’s big rebound

Recovery Tracker jumps on Brazil’s big rebound - iPad

Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) jumped 1.9pts during the week
ending April 30, after the previous week’s 0.1pt drop was revised to a modest
0.2pts gain. Mobility picked up everywhere but Colombia and Peru.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

MENA | Saudi and UAE PMIs; Aramco profits; GCC travel

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (32)

The April PMIs for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE remained in expansionary
territory, at 55.2 and 52.7 respectively. Continued recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic drove the readings, with increases in new orders signalling an
improvement in market conditions.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

MENA | Saudi and UAE PMIs; Aramco profits; GCC travel

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (32)

The April PMIs for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE remained in expansionary
territory, at 55.2 and 52.7 respectively. Continued recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic drove the readings, with increases in new orders signalling an
improvement in market conditions.

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European Cities - Barcelona
Blog|6 May 2021

Overtourism poses long-term questions for cities and their residents

George Bowen
George Bowen
Lead Economist, Cities & Regions
Overtourism poses long-term questions for cities and their residents

In a recent blog post, Will over-tourism be a problem again?, Eva McGrath-Olivan noted that while the increasing scale of pre-pandemic tourism contributed significantly to global economic growth and development, some popular city destinations were starting to experience what many of their residents regarded as over-tourism. In the most favoured quarters of cities such as Barcelona, wealthy tourist visitors have been blamed by locals for rapid rises in rents and prices, forcing residents to relocate to other parts of the city—or elsewhere entirely. Similar criticisms have been made in many other cities, both in Europe (Berlin and Amsterdam, for example) and around the world (such as San Francisco—although in that city the issue is entangled with the impact of high-paying tech companies on the housing market). In some cities, protestors have taken to the streets.

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Ungated Post|6 May 2021

ABC News: Women in Economics: Pre-Budget Panel

ABC News: Women in Economics: Pre-Budget Panel

As the Australian economy recovers from the COVID-19 recession, we are at a critical juncture in policy in Australia. Policy decisions made today will shape the trajectory of Australia’s recovery with implications for equality, our society, and the environment for decades to come. This panel will offer analysis and insights into the policy decisions needed to rebuild a better Australia.

COVID-19 and the consequential economic downturn has created unparalleled uncertainty about our economic future.  Dr. Sarah Hunter, Chief Economist at BIS Oxford Economics, provides an overview of Australia’s budget outlook and the changing structure of the Australian economy against a global backdrop. With the pandemic presenting both challenges and opportunities for Australia’s economy, Sarah discusses what Governments will need to do to secure a sustained and inclusive economic recovery.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

Australia | Construction upswing a boon for domestic demand

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The outlook for the construction industry was relatively benign leading into 2020, with residential construction activity in particular still declining from its peak in 2018. But monetary stimulus and a focus on construction in the fiscal stimulus delivered to the economy thus far has boosted demand, and the industry is set to move into a sharp upswing. 

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

Australia | Construction upswing a boon for domestic demand

0605ipadframe

The outlook for the construction industry was relatively benign leading into 2020, with residential construction activity in particular still declining from its peak in 2018. But monetary stimulus and a focus on construction in the fiscal stimulus delivered to the economy thus far has boosted demand, and the industry is set to move into a sharp upswing. 

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

US | The changing face of manufacturing’s rebound in 2021

US | The changing face of manufacturing’s rebound in 2021

US manufacturing activity is currently above pre-coronavirus levels, marking
the fastest and strongest recovery in the past 60 years. A durable goods snapback in the latter half of 2020 powered the rebound, while nondurables
recovered more slowly. With manufacturing output now above its pre-recession level, we anticipate the recovery dynamics will flip this year, with growth in nondurables taking the lead.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

US | The changing face of manufacturing’s rebound in 2021

US | The changing face of manufacturing’s rebound in 2021

US manufacturing activity is currently above pre-coronavirus levels, marking
the fastest and strongest recovery in the past 60 years. A durable goods snapback in the latter half of 2020 powered the rebound, while nondurables
recovered more slowly. With manufacturing output now above its pre-recession level, we anticipate the recovery dynamics will flip this year, with growth in nondurables taking the lead.

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Research Briefing | May 5, 2021

Canada | Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high

Canada Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high - iPad

The CRT sank 1.3ppts to 85.9 in the week ended April 16, highlighted by a drop in the health index to a new low. Activity also continued to retreat, as stricter public health measures weigh heavily on consumer spending. The race between the spread of the virus and the vaccine rollout is heating up. Restrictions have tightened further, but the timeline for vaccinations in hot spots has been pulled forward considerably. We remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will avoid a contraction in Q2, despite the third wave of infections.

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Research Briefing | May 5, 2021

Canada | Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high

Canada Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high - iPad

The CRT sank 1.3ppts to 85.9 in the week ended April 16, highlighted by a drop in the health index to a new low. Activity also continued to retreat, as stricter public health measures weigh heavily on consumer spending. The race between the spread of the virus and the vaccine rollout is heating up. Restrictions have tightened further, but the timeline for vaccinations in hot spots has been pulled forward considerably. We remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will avoid a contraction in Q2, despite the third wave of infections.

Read more

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Research Briefing | May 5, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: When the chips are down

A global shortage of semiconductors is the latest hiccup to disturb international supply-chains. In our view, though, the shortage is largely a product of strong demand, reflecting the buoyant state of the industrial sector. As such, we do not see it as a major worry for the global economy.

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Research Briefing | May 5, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: When the chips are down

A global shortage of semiconductors is the latest hiccup to disturb international supply-chains. In our view, though, the shortage is largely a product of strong demand, reflecting the buoyant state of the industrial sector. As such, we do not see it as a major worry for the global economy.

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Research Briefing | May 4, 2021

US | Q1 earnings: upward revisions continue for now

US earnings growth continues to surprise to the upside, with more cyclical sectors leading the way in the Q1 earnings season. This positive momentum supports our existing overweights on Financials, Materials and Industrials.

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Research Briefing | May 4, 2021

US | Q1 earnings: upward revisions continue for now

US earnings growth continues to surprise to the upside, with more cyclical sectors leading the way in the Q1 earnings season. This positive momentum supports our existing overweights on Financials, Materials and Industrials.

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Research Briefing | May 4, 2021

Africa | Structural strength shapes the outlook for sectoral growth

AfricaRB0405

The growth recovery divergence between advanced economies and African frontier markets is becoming more overt this year as vaccination campaigns proceed at different speeds. Divergence in rebound prospects on African soil is also gaining traction, with the strength of structural pillars dictating the pace of post-pandemic recovery. We utilise our Economic Potential Index (EPI) to investigate which countries are at risk of carrying the scars of the pandemic deep into the medium term.

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Research Briefing | May 4, 2021

Africa | Structural strength shapes the outlook for sectoral growth

AfricaRB0405

The growth recovery divergence between advanced economies and African frontier markets is becoming more overt this year as vaccination campaigns proceed at different speeds. Divergence in rebound prospects on African soil is also gaining traction, with the strength of structural pillars dictating the pace of post-pandemic recovery. We utilise our Economic Potential Index (EPI) to investigate which countries are at risk of carrying the scars of the pandemic deep into the medium term.

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Blog|3 May 2021

Video: Agile Procurement Insights on Procurement Digital Transformation

Thought Leadership Team
Thought Leadership Team
Oxford Economics
Video: Agile Procurement Insights on Procurement Digital Transformation

Oxford Economics and SAP conducted a robust research project to understand procurement’s influence on the organisation, the current state of supplier collaboration, and the impact of technology and process digitisation in the procurement function. In June 2020, we surveyed 1,000 procurement and supply chain executives, and the data answers important company questions.

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The latest quarterly travel forecasts for the European region produced for the European Travel Commission (ETC).

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Research Briefing | Apr 30, 2021

Norway | Country Economic Forecast April

Ipad Frame (15)-2

Norway’s economy is restrained by activity restrictions that aim to maintain 
tight control over the pandemic. However, once containment measures ease, Norway is well placed for a strong rebound, with a large savings buffer, robust goods demand, and firming oil exports supporting the recovery. We see mainland GDP growing 3.6% in 2021, up from our 3.4% forecast in March.

What you will learn about:

  • Activity data for February continued to show Norway’s economy struggling
  • We estimate Norwegian households built up excess savings
  • Inflation dipped in March by 0.2ppts

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Research Briefing | Apr 30, 2021

Norway | Country Economic Forecast April

Ipad Frame (15)-2

Norway’s economy is restrained by activity restrictions that aim to maintain 
tight control over the pandemic. However, once containment measures ease, Norway is well placed for a strong rebound, with a large savings buffer, robust goods demand, and firming oil exports supporting the recovery. We see mainland GDP growing 3.6% in 2021, up from our 3.4% forecast in March.

What you will learn about:

  • Activity data for February continued to show Norway’s economy struggling
  • We estimate Norwegian households built up excess savings
  • Inflation dipped in March by 0.2ppts

Read more

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Research Briefing | Apr 30, 2021

UK | More signs of an economy healing

Ipad Frame (14)-2

Recent survey and high-frequency data have boosted hopes that the economy is in the early stages of a strong rebound as lockdown ends. Positively, that rebound rests on the foundations of solid household balance sheets. Indeed, the extent to which households (and the property market) were insulated from Covid’s economic shock was revealed in ONS data showing 2020 delivered the fastest rise in households’ net worth in six years.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Apr 30, 2021

UK | More signs of an economy healing

Ipad Frame (14)-2

Recent survey and high-frequency data have boosted hopes that the economy is in the early stages of a strong rebound as lockdown ends. Positively, that rebound rests on the foundations of solid household balance sheets. Indeed, the extent to which households (and the property market) were insulated from Covid’s economic shock was revealed in ONS data showing 2020 delivered the fastest rise in households’ net worth in six years.

Read more