Research Briefing | May 6, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker takes a breather as vaccinations slow

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The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.6ppts to 90.7 in the week ended April 23, its first decline in eight weeks, as three of the six subcomponents fell. This shows that while the recovery is picking up steam, it won’t be without setbacks.

What you will learn:

  • Mobility and demand fell simultaneously as consumers cut back on car trips, flights, dinner nights, and recreation outlays. We believe the end of spring break and the fading boost from stimulus checks are likely culprits for the cooler spending momentum.
  • Health conditions improved as vaccinations increased and fewer new Covid infections were registered. And while inoculations have slowed to an average daily pace of around 2mn from above 3mn in mid-April, we still see the US reaching herd immunity this summer.
  • Increased new business applications and more refinery and steel output drove production higher, while more job postings and lower new jobless claims pushed employment to its best showing since the pandemic began.

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