Research Briefing | May 5, 2021

Canada | Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high

Canada Recovery Tracker sank as Covid-19 cases hit new high - iPad

The CRT sank 1.3ppts to 85.9 in the week ended April 16, highlighted by a drop in the health index to a new low. Activity also continued to retreat, as stricter public health measures weigh heavily on consumer spending. The race between the spread of the virus and the vaccine rollout is heating up. Restrictions have tightened further, but the timeline for vaccinations in hot spots has been pulled forward considerably. We remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will avoid a contraction in Q2, despite the third wave of infections.

What you will learn:

  • The health index sank 21.6ppts as new cases per million rose to 346, breaching its previous peak in early January. The positive test rate climbed 0.3ppts to 6.5%, and hospitalizations increased 24% w/w. 
  • The activity index fell 2.7ppts, due to a sharp 38% decline in restaurant bookings and a 1% drop in consumer spending. 
  • The sentiment index fell 2.1ppts, its fourth straight retreat, as all subcomponents moved lower, led by durable goods and housing interest. 

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