Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

UK | Positive news points to MPC sticking with no change

 Positive-news-points-to-MPC-sticking-with-no-change

Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote 
unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also push
up its forecast for GDP growth.

What you will learn:

  • Activity appears to be emerging from the recent lockdown in less-bad shape than the committee anticipated. And the latest step in reopening the economy in mid-April looks to have triggered a surge in spending.
  • News that Andrew Haldane will leave the MPC in June means the committee will lose its most bullish member.
  • In our view, Haldane’s departure doesn’t shift the dial on what’s likely to be a long period of monetary policy inaction.

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