UK | Buoyant consumers fuel a strong recovery
Retail sales surged in March, even though many physical stores remained closed, while the reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor hospitality in England on April 12 appears to have generated a surge in spending over the past couple of weeks. The strength of this reaction to restrictions being relaxed adds credence to our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth. And there is still little evidence that the recovery is likely to be thrown off course by either a spike in unemployment or a sustained pickup in inflation.
What you will learn from this report:
- Retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in March.
- Consumers have reacted positively to increased opportunities for social consumption.
- We think it’s unlikely the consumer recovery will be derailed by surging unemployment or inflation.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.
Find Out More
Post
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.
Find Out More