UK | Buoyant consumers fuel a strong recovery
Retail sales surged in March, even though many physical stores remained closed, while the reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor hospitality in England on April 12 appears to have generated a surge in spending over the past couple of weeks. The strength of this reaction to restrictions being relaxed adds credence to our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth. And there is still little evidence that the recovery is likely to be thrown off course by either a spike in unemployment or a sustained pickup in inflation.
What you will learn from this report:
- Retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in March.
- Consumers have reacted positively to increased opportunities for social consumption.
- We think it’s unlikely the consumer recovery will be derailed by surging unemployment or inflation.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.
Find Out More
Post
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.
Find Out More