Research Briefing | Apr 29, 2021

Global | World trade is staging an impressive rebound

World-trade-is-staging-an-impressive-rebound

World goods trade is staging an impressive recovery. It has now returned to its pre-pandemic trend, and our forecasts see it expanding by 10.5% this year after dropping 6.1% in 2020. Some bilateral trade relationships remain difficult, and services trade will remain a significant drag on overall trade. But the picture is considerably better than we feared it could be nine to twelve months ago.

What you will learn:

  • The rebound in goods trade has been much faster than it was after the global financial crisis, even with the many coronavirus restrictions still in place.
  • All regions are recovering well, with China standing out the most. The extent of the trade rebounds in other emerging markets and advanced economies have been similar to each other, although the latter recovery started earlier.
  • Among advanced economies, Asian economies ex-Japan have done best, while the eurozone lags. Among emerging markets, Asian and Central and Eastern European economies are leaders, with Latin America a bit behind.

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