Global | World trade is staging an impressive rebound
World goods trade is staging an impressive recovery. It has now returned to its pre-pandemic trend, and our forecasts see it expanding by 10.5% this year after dropping 6.1% in 2020. Some bilateral trade relationships remain difficult, and services trade will remain a significant drag on overall trade. But the picture is considerably better than we feared it could be nine to twelve months ago.
What you will learn:
- The rebound in goods trade has been much faster than it was after the global financial crisis, even with the many coronavirus restrictions still in place.
- All regions are recovering well, with China standing out the most. The extent of the trade rebounds in other emerging markets and advanced economies have been similar to each other, although the latter recovery started earlier.
- Among advanced economies, Asian economies ex-Japan have done best, while the eurozone lags. Among emerging markets, Asian and Central and Eastern European economies are leaders, with Latin America a bit behind.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Why tariffs won’t strangle Eurozone consumer spending
We think the damage from US tariffs on Eurozone consumer spending will be relatively mild. This is crucial for the Eurozone economic outlook, as the gradual rebound in private consumption is the only growth engine at present.
Find Out More
Post
Eurozone’s bund yields and the term premium to remain elevated
We expect 10-year bund yields to increase towards 2.8% by late 2026, as the term premium remains around 1.1% and the risk-neutral yield climbs above 1.7% over the next few quarters.
Find Out More