Withstand shocks. resilience.
Withstand shocks, anticipate disruption and protect continuity with economic risk forecasts, scenarios, and resilience frameworks.
Organisations face rising exposure to shock; from geopolitical tensions and volatile input costs to climate transition risk, regulatory pressure, and increasingly fragile global supply chains. Decision-makers need credible evidence to understand vulnerabilities, test adverse conditions, and plan with confidence.
Oxford Economics provides this foundation. Our risk models, macro and climate scenarios, and sustainability frameworks help organisations identify risks, quantify impacts, and design continuity strategies grounded in rigorous economic evidence.
We deliver defensible stress tests for banks and insurers, climate-transition and physical-risk assessments for corporates, and tailored scenarios that support regulatory disclosure, capital planning, and board-level risk oversight.
Across industries and financial institutions, we equip resilience leaders with the insights, tools, and scenarios needed to anticipate shocks, withstand disruption, and demonstrate preparedness under uncertainty.
Latest Insights
The Challenges
The challenges risk and resilience teams face
As economic shocks become more frequent and interconnected, creating a risk framework that can identify and quantify these impacts becomes critical.
Quantifying exposure to economic shocks
Understanding how geopolitical disruptions, commodity shocks, trade policy shifts, and volatile rate regimes translate into real financial and operational impact, whether in a loan book, a revenue forecast, or a cost base, requires a globally coherent economic model.
Supply chain fragility
Organisations often do not know the full extent of their economic dependencies until a shock reveals them. Identifying where supply chain concentration risk is highest and how disruption propagates through supplier networks requires intelligence that goes well beyond first-tier supplier visibility.
Regulatory stress testing
Stress testing, IFRS 9 and other and disclosure requirements are becoming more demanding and more prescriptive across financial services and corporate sectors. Meeting them requires robust, independently produced scenarios that satisfy regulators and auditors.
Climate and ESG disclosure
Regulators and disclosure frameworks increasingly require organisations to account for climate, nature, and physical risks as part of their standard business processes with measurable financial and operational impacts quantified. Doing this credibly requires scenarios integrated with the broader economic outlook.
Business continuity under stress
When a shock emerges, organisations need to go beyond idenficiation and show a robust plan to maintain operations and protect revenue. Building that plan requires scenario analysis grounded in rigorous economic evidence.
Demonstrating preparedness
Boards, regulators, rating agencies, and investors expect organisations to show that risks have been quantified and that plans exist for multiple outcomes. The evidence needs to be independently produced and methodologically defensible, whether for a regulatory submission or a board risk report.
How we help
How Oxford Economics supports resilience
From regulatory stress testing and climate disclosure to supply chain vulnerability and continuity planning, Oxford Economics provides the scenario expertise and economic rigour to help organisations quantify exposure, test resilience, and withstand shocks with confidence.
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Design macroeconomic stress scenarios
Oxford Economics produces bespoke stress scenarios calibrated to regulatory requirements across major global frameworks, including CECL, IFRS9, CCAR, and regional equivalents from central banks and supervisory authorities worldwide, or tailored to specific organisational exposures for ICAAP. Scenarios are internally consistent, independently produced, and credible to regulators, auditors, and investment committees.
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Quantify climate, nature and ESG risk
Model climate transition and physical risk scenarios aligned with the NGFS framework, or extend the NGFS scenarios and design tailored climate pathways, all within the same economic framework that drives growth, inflation, and financial market outcomes rather than as a separate overlay. Organisations can quantify climate exposure, support TCFD and CSRD disclosure, and build climate risk dashboards for prudential and ESG compliance.
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Map exposure to macro and geopolitical shocks
Oxford Economics maps how geopolitical disruptions, trade policy shifts, commodity volatility, and rate regime changes flow through to specific portfolios, revenue lines, and cost structures giving organisations a clear view of where exposure is most concentrated and where buffers may come under pressure.
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Identify supply chain vulnerabilities
Provide the geographic and sector-level economic intelligence to map supply chain dependencies, identify concentration risk, and stress-test resilience economic, political, and climate-related disruptions. Organisations can move from identifying vulnerabilities to building continuity plans and diversification strategies before a shock makes the exposure visible.
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Align leadership and support disclosure
Work with risk, sustainability, and executive teams to translate scenario analysis into risk registers, continuity playbooks, and disclosure reports, ensuring boards, regulators, and investors receive evidence of preparedness that is rigorous and independently grounded.
How this applies to your role
Oxford Economics supports resilience decisions across four critical areas of risk and exposure:
Financial Institutions
We help banks and insurers produce the regulator-ready stress scenarios required for supervisory stress-testing programmes such as CCAR, EBA and BCST, for capital adequacy assessment (ICAAP), translate Oxford Economics’ forecasts into major regulatory frameworks including CECL and IFRS9, build climate risk dashboards for prudential and ESG compliance, and provide board and investment committee packs with economic scenario analysis
Corporate Risk and Sustainability
We help corporate risk and sustainability teams stress-test operations and revenue exposure under macro, geopolitical, and climate shocks, map climate and ESG risks to assets and operations, support TCFD and CSRD disclosure obligations, and build business continuity and crisis response plans grounded in rigorous economic scenario analysis.
Supply Chain and Operations
We help procurement and operations teams map supply chain dependencies and trade flow exposure, quantify the impact of tariff changes, logistics disruption, and geopolitical supply risks on input costs and sourcing strategy, and build continuity plans that hold up under a range of stress scenarios.
Infrastructure and Capital Projects
We help project finance teams stress-test project economics under adverse macroeconomic conditions, assess physical climate risk for long-life assets, quantify geopolitical and regulatory risk over long project horizons, and test whether long-run demand assumptions for transport, energy, or logistics infrastructure remain credible under a range of economic stress scenarios.
Case Studies
CMHC’s Stress Testing and ORSA team has started using Oxford Economics for the purpose of Stress-Testing. Our experience has been very positive. The software is sound, intuitive and user friendly. But most of all, it allows the user to understand the links between the variables and for a certain degree of customization. We have also contracted OE to help us design Stress-Test scenarios.
Why Oxford Economics
Independent scenario expertise, integrated climate modelling, and global-to-city granularity, built for the evidential standards that resilience decisions demand
Featured Insights
Research Briefing
A Net Zero transition would reshape the industrial landscape.
Research Briefing
Understand structural shifts shaping global exposure, supply-chain resilience, and long-term geopolitical risk.
Research Briefing
Evaluate tariff-driven operational risks and quantify impacts on supply chains, costs, and continuity planning.
Featured Products
Global Economic Model
Stress-test plans and quantify shock impacts using the world’s most comprehensive macro-economic modelling system.
Global Scenarios Service
Access ready-made downside, upside, and event-driven scenarios to assess risk exposure and support continuity planning.
Global Sustainability Model
Evaluate climate-transition and physical risks with integrated economic–climate pathways across countries and sectors.
Unlock the power of economics with Oxford Economics’ data, modelling, research and analysis, surfaced inside your AI tools
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Climate Change and Sustainability Consulting
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Global Climate Service
Assess the impact climate change will have on all facets of your business. Now…
Industry Climate Service
Assess the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies for more than 100 sectors.
Cities and Regions Consulting
Understand the consequences of global, national and local events on cities and regional economies.
Global Industry Model
Industry scenario modelling for stress testing, scenario planning, and climate analysis.
Megatrends Scenarios
Navigate long-term uncertainty and assess key risks shaping the business environment.
Contact Us
Discuss how Oxford Economics can strengthen your organisation’s resilience.
Explore how we help organisations anticipate disruption, comply with risk and climate regulations, and build continuity plans supported by rigorous economic analysis.
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