Home
Free Trial
Free TrialSign In
  • Sign In
  • What we do
    • Countries/Macro
      • Global Economic Model
      • Global Macro Service
      • Global Trade Flows
      • Global Scenarios
      • Country Economic Forecasts
      • US Forecasts
      • Africa Forecasts
      • Event-Driven Analysis
      • All services
    • Cities & Regions
      • Global
      • UK & Europe
      • Americas
      • Africa & Middle East
      • Asia-Pacific
    • Industries
      • Global Industry Service
      • Global Construction Service
    • CONSULTANCY
      • Economic Impact
      • Thought Leadership
      • Macro Consulting
      • Bespoke Forecasting
    • TRAVEL & TOURISM
      • Global Travel Service
      • Global City Travel
      • Air Passenger Forecasts
      • Webinars
      • Resources
      • Careers
      • Awards
    • Contact us to find out more about our forecasting services, models, & scenarios.

      Free trial
  • How we help

    Our economists and analysts help organisations make better decisions, set strategies, improve resiliency, establish policy, discover new opportunities, optimize operations and plan for growth. Find out how we can help you below or use our product recommendation tool to get started.

    • TRENDING TOPICS
      • Presidential election
      • Coronavirus
      • Coronavirus vaccine
      • Climate change
      • Cities
      • Our approach
      • How we help
      • Sectors we serve
      • Blog
  • About Us
  • My Oxford
  • Contact
  • Media
  • Sectors We Serve
  • My sector
    • How we help
      • Asset Management
      • B2C
      • Banking
      • Chemicals
      • Energy
      • Government
      • Infrastructure
      • Manufacturing
      • Mining
      • Real Estate
      • Technology
      • Travel and tourism

IFRS9 Macroeconomic Scenarios

With over 35 years of independent forecasting and risk analysis experience, Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide an unbiased and transparent view of the forward-looking distribution for the economy. Our tailored IFRS 9 service includes up to six economic scenarios and their associated probabilities covering 80 countries.

UNBIASED SCENARIOS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR IFRS9

Oxford Economics offers a solution that specifically addresses the requirements of new accountancy standards, namely to provide an unbiased view of the forward-looking distribution and associated probabilities for the macroeconomic outlook.

Exploiting our forecast track record, the in-depth analysis of our 160 in-house country economists, and the world’s leading globally integrated macro model, Oxford Economics produces robust forward-looking distributions for the key drivers of impairment in 80 countries in line with local and global risks.

Click to download sample IFRS9 scenarios for:

Germany
Spain
Netherlands
UK
France

What the service includes:

Up to 6 macroeconomic scenarios and their probabilities

Spanning the probability distribution of forecasts and covering the expected lifetime of assets.

Comprehensive Variable Coverage

Scenario outputs for Germany, Spain, Netherlands, the UK, and France covering the key drivers of impairment: property prices, financial asset prices, income gearing, interest and FX rates.

Detailed reports

Reports that explicitly detail changes from the last set of scenarios based on our analysis of current trends and risks, informed by proprietary global surveys of around 200 leading companies and external benchmarks.

Regular updates to scenarios

Scenarios are updated quarterly to reflect changes to the base case and emerging risk.

Methodology

The methodology used to construct these forward looking distributions is similar to that used by the European Central Bank and Bank of England when assessing the risks around their central projections.

Based on these robust distributions we derive coherent economic scenarios along with their probability. Crucially, our approach ensures that the only changes to scenarios from quarter to quarter are due to a transparent assessment of emerging or receding risks utilising external benchmarks and proprietary surveys on the nature and severity of risks to the economy.

MODELLING APPROACH

At the centre of our approach is our renowned Global Economic Model, which integrates individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, interest and exchange rates, capital flows and commodity prices.

The model’s unique open-architecture framework enables us to assess the impacts of adverse scenarios on economic indicators and a range of asset classes. The model’s flexible software allows variables to be added to meet our clients’ needs when assessing the impact of multiple economic scenarios on portfolios.

VALIDATED MODEL

The Global Economic Model has been used by banks for stress tests published by a large number of the authorities around the world, including the Federal Reserve, the European Banking Authority, the UK Prudential Regulation Authority, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

WHY YOU CAN RELY ON US

Since 2017 we have been helping institutions of varying sizes across the world construct and use multiple economic scenarios and their probabilities to calculate expected losses. An acknowledged world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, our roster of more than 1,500 clients includes leading companies across a range, of industries including financial services, consumer goods and retailers, industrial manufacturing and energy and professional services

Contact Us

Neil Walker

Director of Macro Modelling and Scenarios
London, United Kingdom
+44 (0) 203 910 8128
Email

Anthony Light

Director of Cities
+44 (0) 20 3910 8053
Email

REGISTER YOUR INTEREST

Please fill out the form below, and we will be in touch.

  • Oxford Economics
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Media
    • Economists and analysts
    • Careers
  • Products and services
    • Subscription services
    • Economic impact
    • Thought leadership
  • Help and software
    • Help using our services
    • Software and downloads
    • Latest technology developments
  • Privacy and Legal
    • Privacy policy
    • Cookies
    • Data protection
    • Terms and conditions
    • Software Support and Training
  • Follow Us
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
© Oxford Economics 2020 all rights reserved