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Webinar
UK Outlook: Where does the MPC go from here?

with Andrew Goodwin | Online | June 21, 2022

Inflation is on course to top 10% in October when the energy price cap rises again, and consumers face the biggest fall in real incomes for 80 years. Despite strong pushback from the MPC, markets expect the Committee to ultimately prove more concerned about high inflation than potential recession, and price a series of rate hikes through the rest of this year. In this webinar we will look at the main messages from June’s MPC meeting and assess what they mean for the future path of interest rates.

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Webinar
Middle East: Regional growth trends in an inflationary world

with Scott Livermore | Online | June 20, 2022

Inflation has not been a major concern for GCC commodity exporters, containing pressure on domestic demand, but like everywhere else, consumer prices are rising. In this webinar, we will place regional trends in the global context and discuss the challenges the current period of higher inflation may pose to the otherwise positive outlook.

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Webinar
Recession risks in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin and Gabriel Sterne | Online | June 20, 2022

Latin America was one of the regions most affected by the current wave of imported inflation. And with all five major central banks bound to miss their inflation targets for three years in a row in 2021-23, policy rates have been increased significantly, taking real rates to multi-year highs everywhere. Partly as a result of this abrupt monetary tightening we expect four of the six largest economies in the region to enter technical recessions in the next 12 months.

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Webinar
Tight supply supports energy, demand concerns weigh on metals

with Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Stephen Hare | Online | June 17, 2022

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict showing little sign of ending, concerns about supply continue to dominate energy markets – the EU is ratcheting up pressure on Russia, while Russia has in turn cut off gas supply to several countries. The focus in metals markets has shifted towards concerns about demand amid the slowdown in China. In this webinar we explore the impact of these developments on commodity prices and discuss key risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
Global Economic Outlook Webinar: Will high inflation halt the recovery?

with Ben May | Online | June 16, 2022

The global economy has started 2022 on a distinctly soft note and uncertainties over the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, high inflation and activity restrictions continue to cloud the nearer-term outlook. While recession risks have certainly grown over recent months, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery. In this webinar, we provide an overview of our latest assessment of the global economic outlook.

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Webinar
Fed still has a good chance of navigating a soft landing

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | June 9, 2022

The Federal Reserve fell behind the inflation curve and now is committed to aggressively front-loading policy tightening, which is helping to send recession odds higher. We will discuss when they are likely to scale back on the tightening and the unique dynamics in this expansion that give the Federal Reserve a fighting chance to achieve a soft landing.

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Webinar
Africa’s ability to adapt in a changing landscape

with Jacques Nel and Greg Struyweg | Online | May 31, 2022

Relations between Russia and the West have changed irreversibly. This will have a lasting impact on the global economy. The outlook for a number of commodities has changed fundamentally. Economic structure may be destiny: Algeria received an unexpected reprieve at a moment that otherwise looked threatening, whereas the picture for energy-importing Tunisia is suddenly bleaker than ever. This webinar looks at which African countries have the economic structures to make the best of the situation. We also look at where institutional factors will play either a positive or negative role in this transition - highly centralised and personalised systems, in which popular anger can be focussed narrowly, are more fragile than democratic and liberal ones in which hardship is experienced as impersonal.

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Webinar
Latin America’s winners and losers from the war in Ukraine

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | May 20, 2022

As a relevant commodity exporter, Latin America stands to benefit from the generalized increase in prices for raw materials. But the gains will not be uniform across all countries or across all sector of the economy, as the renewed rise in inflation will squeeze consumers' incomes and savings.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Inflation and war take the spotlight from Covid

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | May 17, 2022

High inflation, rising interest rates, greater supply chain stress, and the war in Ukraine have quickly replaced Covid as the major concerns facing the US economy. Despite these new challenges, we think the US economy still stands on solid ground. We look for leisure and hospitality to lead the growth charge as the broader US economy recoups all jobs lost to the pandemic by the end of 2022. Tune in to learn what we think lies ahead for the US economy – with a focus on the path ahead for US metros and regions.

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Webinar
Stagflation! We reveal EMs most vulnerable to nasty supply shock legacies

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | May 12, 2022

The great moderation of previous decades has given way to a period of ghastly aggravation. The key drivers of good times were good policy, good luck and structural change. Now things have reversed, and we reveal those EMs most at risk of longer term macro-instability, based on the views of our country economists and a simple scoring system based on key performance-metrics.

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Webinar
Asia: What do rising inflation pressures mean for growth

with Priyanka Kishore and Tommy Wu | Online | May 6, 2022

Asia’s inflation troubles have increased with rising import prices adding on to upside pressures from domestic sources. We forecast consumer inflation to keep rising into Q3 but remain within manageable levels. Risks to our inflation view are to the upside.

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Webinar
Where real estate investors should look for shelter from high inflation

with Christopher Babatope and Mark Unsworth | Online | May 4, 2022

With US headline inflation hitting its highest level since December 1981 in April and the Federal Reserve entering a front-loaded tightening cycle, there is plenty for real estate investors to consider. At the national level we still expect 2022 returns to be above historical averages but the picture among sectors and cities is mixed. We examine where investors can find the best shelter from the impact of higher inflation across the US and how real estate compares to other asset classes.

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Webinar
War in Ukraine presents new headwinds for the Nordics

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | April 29, 2022

In this webinar, we will discuss the channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacts the Nordic economies. Specifically, its impact on energy prices and inflation, Nordic dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels, and trade and industry links.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: New Headwinds Emerge

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | April 27, 2022

The Canadian economy weathered Omicron better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. The economic impact on Canada of Russia's invasion of Ukraine should be limited due to few direct trade and financial ties. Rather the fallout for Canada will be primarily via higher global energy and food prices, weaker external demand, and supply disruptions. Domestically, we now expect a correction in Canadian house prices will get underway by autumn, triggered by record unaffordability, rising interest rates, and new policies to tax house-flippers and non-resident-owned vacant homes.

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Webinar
Food price inflation could hit Africa the hardest

with Jacques Nel and Petro van Eck | Online | April 26, 2022

Food accounts for a large share of the consumer price basket in a number of African countries. This means that the impact of surging global food prices will be marked. Higher food prices will filter through to consumers and undermine purchasing power. But the impact will extend far beyond headline CPI: calls for subsidies will either be heeded, putting pressure on the fiscus, or disregarded, resulting in social discontent. In this webinar we look at which African countries look set to be hit the hardest and what this means for the fiscus, monetary policy, and political stability.

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Webinar
Which world cities will see the strongest employment growth to 2026, and why?

with Richard Holt and Anthony Light | Online | April 19, 2022

Following the recent publication of our latest forecasts for the world’s leading cities, and against a background of huge short-term uncertainty for the global economy, this webinar will stand back, and offer a medium-term (to 2026) view of job prospects in major cities. Have the pandemic, the inflation surge and supply shortages, and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine, changed everything? Or will cities in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific gradually return to their pre-pandemic trajectories? Which cities will be the winners, and which are the ones that are most likely to struggle?

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Webinar
US Outlook: Shifting headwinds

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | April 12, 2022

The US economy faces shifting headwinds - Higher inflation and greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are overshadowing current concerns about Covid. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.2% this year and slow to 2.0% in 2023, but risks are tilted to the downside given the intensifying inflation shock, increased supply chain stress, a more hawkish Fed, and a large fiscal drag.

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Webinar
La guerre Russie-Ukraine, quelles conséquences pour la Présidentielle et l’économie mondiale ?

with Daniela Ordonez and Pierre Delage | Online | April 8, 2022

L’élection présidentielle se profile en pleine incertitude créée par la guerre en Ukraine, et ses conséquences sur les prix des matières premières et le pouvoir d’achat. L’inflation, déjà stimulée par les problèmes de chaines de valeurs et les confinements en Chine, aura un impact sur les votes en avril dans un pays marqué par la crise des gilets jaunes. Quelle économie mondiale nous attend et quel Président pour la France, dans un contexte de ralentissement qui renforce les risques de stagflation et met les banques centrales face à un dilemme cornélien?

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Webinar
Why global demographics are not inflationary

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | March 17, 2022

Will the ageing of societies soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates, as argued prominently by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan? We review their argument and show that it relies on extreme or flawed assumptions that when combined produce a misleading picture. Indeed, our in-depth modelling suggest the opposite: ageing societies will keep inflation and interest rates low for decades.

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