Recession risks in Latin America
Latin America was one of the regions most affected by the current wave of imported inflation. And with all five major central banks bound to miss their inflation targets for three years in a row in 2021-23, policy rates have been increased significantly, taking real rates to multi-year highs everywhere. Partly as a result of this abrupt monetary tightening we expect four of the six largest economies in the region to enter technical recessions in the next 12 months.
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Marcos Casarin
Chief Latin American Economist
Marcos Casarin
Chief Latin American Economist
Marcos is the Chief Economist for Latin America at Oxford Economics, based in Mexico City. Following a six-year stint in London, he relocated to Mexico City in 2018 to run the firm’s Latin America operation locally. Marcos is responsible for developing Oxford’s in-house view on the region, as well as producing the macroeconomic forecasts for Brazil. He manages a team of economists who produce regional and country-specific research pieces on over 30 countries, as well as contributes to the editorial line of Oxford Economics globally. Marcos’ work also involves presenting the outlook to clients around the world and liaising with the media.
Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research
Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research
Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for the financial markets, as Head of a team that integrates global strategy and EM macro views. Recently he has published most on populism, demographics and other drivers of low global yields, and the evolution of global fragilities as expansions mature. On the EM side he is a global expert on sovereign crisis and debt restructuring issues.
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