Events and Webinars

Webinar

The near- and long-term economic impact of the US election

with Bernard Yaros and Ryan Sweet | Online | November 11, 2024

Former President Donald Trump will return to the White House next year, with Republicans likely controlling both the House of Representatives and Senate. Lawmakers will have to address three major fiscal deadlines in 2025: the debt limit, the expiring Trump tax cuts, and FY2026 government funding. Meaningful actions on tax and spending policy are in store. Meanwhile, a Trump White House will proceed unilaterally on trade and immigration policy. We will focus on changes to the baseline forecast and the risks to the US outlook, including fiscal sustainability.

Event

It’s the economy! Cosa cambia per l’economia globale ed europea dopo il voto USA

In-Person | November 7, 2024

Event It’s the economy! Cosa cambia per l’economia globale ed europea dopo il voto USA 7th November 2024 – 10.30am ISPI – Palazzo Clerici, Milano Oxford Economics e ISPI, sono lieti di invitarla al convegno che si terrà il 7 Novembre a Milano sull’impatto delle elezioni USA. Negli scorsi mesi Oxford Economics e ISPI hanno...

Webinar

Initial market reactions to US election results

with Gabriel Sterne and Javier Corominas | Online | November 6, 2024

Webinar

Trade in turbulent times – Shipping costs and the Red Sea

with Ben Udy | Online | November 5, 2024

2024 has, so far, been a disruptive year for global trade. Shipping costs jumped 300% y/y to peak in July. This is largely due to conflict in the Red Sea has which has disrupted nearly 20% of global shipping flows. This webinar will explore these issues and the outlook and risks to shipping costs and trade in the year ahead.

Webinar

UK Budget reaction

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 1, 2024

The new government will present its first Budget on October 30. We expect the government to present new fiscal rules, and increase both government spending and taxation. In this webinar we will analyse the main policy changes and assess the implications for our economic forecasts.

Webinar

Shifting dynamics in the travel & tourism outlook

with Helen McDermott and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 31, 2024

With global international travel set to recover fully this year, we explore the underlying drivers that have helped get there as well as factors that have hindered recovery in key regions and destinations. We explore the outlook for 2025 amid a softening economic backdrop in some key source markets and consider the key risks to the global travel industry as well as the key opportunities as we move into next year.

Event

US Election Virtual Roundtable

with Ryan Sweet, Bernard Yaros and Debra D'Agostino | In-Person | October 30, 2024

Ryan and Bernard will present the final results of the Oxford Economics election scenarios, which have been measuring the economic impact of every potential results for several months. We anticipate both the presidential and congressional elections to be a toss-up until Election Day, so our scenario approach is greatly valued by clients. Ryan and Bernard will also debate how the election results will impact the Federal Reserve, financial markets, global trade, industry winners & losers and the implications for the economy in 2025.

Webinar

Why Global Macroeconomic Climate Scenarios are key to understanding risks across countries, sectors and regions.

with Felicity Hannon, Sean Metcalfe and Daniel Parker | Online | October 29, 2024

comprehensive view of both transition risks (e.g., policy changes, market shifts) and chronic physical risks (e.g., long-term climate effects like rising sea levels or temperature changes). Understanding these risks is essential for informed investment decision-making as global economies adapt to climate challenges. You’ll gain insights on: How transition risks and physical risks affect different countries, sectors and regions. The role of climate policies and carbon pricing in shaping asset performance. Why consistent macroeconomic modelling is critical for assessing impacts. High level comparison to NGFS.

Webinar

Nordics: Growing tailwinds to support economic recovery

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | October 24, 2024

With inflation down significantly across advanced markets, major central banks have started to cut interest rates and households finally enjoy real income gains. But there are also reasons to be cautious, as geopolitical risks remain abundant. In this webinar, we will unpack the drivers of our near-term macro, industry, and cities outlook for the Nordic economies.

Webinar

A tale of two regions: cruise travel trends in the Caribbean and the Mediterranean

with Christian Savelli and Helen McDermott | Online | October 23, 2024

The cruise ship orderbook is one of the main drivers of change in deployment trends for the cruise industry. This session will discuss how the orderbook mix is impacting these two regions as they are experiencing different growth trajectories.

Webinar

Cutting back – a low energy demand pathway to net zero

with Beatrice Tanjangco and Samuel Gonzalez Holguera | Online | October 21, 2024

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of six climate scenarios against our Oxford Economics baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter, our new scenario “Low Energy Demand” highlights the role of reducing energy demand in the clean energy transition. In this scenario, the failure to decarbonise the grid and develop necessary technology like carbon capture compels the world to reduce energy demand. We assume that stringent climate policies are essential to induce the efficiency improvements and behavioural change required to meet climate goals. As the world transforms to make do with less energy, the economy is structurally changed in the long term.

Webinar

ETC tourism trends and prospects: Q3 2024

with Chloe Parkins, Jennifer Iduh and Ivan Poltoracki | Online | October 16, 2024

Tourism Economics will provide an overview of the latest tourism sector trends and outlook in Europe, highlighting some key trends across the region and briefly covering some analysis around over tourism. Additionally, we will be joined by Ivan Poltoracki from Amadeus who will talk through the latest aviation trends for inbound tourism to Europe and give an insight into air traffic performance over the summer.

Webinar

How to measure indirect climate and sustainability risk across your portfolios

with Jake Kuyer and Ilana Gottlieb | Online | October 8, 2024

Climate and sustainability risks are not only material for business operations, but they are also critical factors for investing and portfolio management. Often embedded in complex global supply chains, we’ll explore how a deeper understanding of these hidden risks can help you mitigate potential threats and maximise risk-adjusted returns. Key Topics: • The growing importance of climate and sustainability risks in portfolio management. • How hidden supply chain risks can affect the performance of your portfolio. • A demonstration of our advanced capabilities, designed to analyse and manage climate risks. • Results from a back testing experiment using real market data that highlights how applying our ‘indirect climate risk scores’ can boost portfolio performance.

Webinar

Our latest Emerging Market macro forecasts and asset views

with Gabriel Sterne and Callee Davis | Online | October 2, 2024

We examine how Emerging Markets will react to slowing global demand, falling global interest rates and consider US political risks.

Webinar

What 2025 and a second Trump presidency holds for Latin America

with Tim Hunter and Mauricio Monge | Online | September 27, 2024

Growth dynamics next year will differ across Latin America's six largest economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – but most economies will experience an acceleration in growth. However, this contrasts with a consumer outlook which is losing steam, and instead we see investment and trade as driving higher growth in 2025. This will come with support from US and domestic monetary policy easing, as inflation will broadly be at target. We will explore the stories affecting individual economies, such as the risk of judicial reform in Mexico to investment and the impact of President Milei’s radical reforms in Argentina. November will bring the US presidential election, and we will examine the impacts on Latin America of a new trade war under a second Trump presidency.

Webinar

Global Strategy Webinar – After a volatile summer, where next for markets?

with Javier Corominas and Ryan Field | Online | September 26, 2024

We think the bout of market volatility this month was largely reflective of technical selling following noisy data and not owing to a change in macro fundamentals. Our base case remains a soft landing in the US as growth remains underpinned by a still-healthy consumer.

Webinar

City tourism beyond pandemic recovery – is the new normal the same as the old normal?

with Dave Goodger, Emma Laverty and Kieran Ferran | Online | September 25, 2024

As tourism moves beyond pandemic recovery we will look at the emerging city travel trends to understand how demand and rankings have changed, including shifts in demand composition by source market. Changes in source market preferences and connectivity as well as any impacts of costs and affordability will also be considered. Demand composition, including business and leisure travel trends will also be discussed relative to pre-pandemic trends.

Webinar

Treading carefully on the path to recovery

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 24, 2024

The recovery continues but shows signs of cracking, and some measures of inflation keep dragging their feet. Shaky confidence casts doubt on growth shifting up a gear, whilst the European Central Bank remains reluctant to signal a much looser monetary policy. Will growth lose steam amidst an industrial sector still in the doldrums? Will the ECB wreck the ship in its effort to tame inflation? The eurozone economy had a decent first half of the year, but the pace of the recovery going forward remains highly uncertain.

Webinar

Industrial recovery struggles to gain momentum

with Abby Samp and Dominic Dobryniewski | Online | September 23, 2024

Industrial production growth has improved relative to last year, but still trails the broader economy. The cycle has bottomed out and remains on course for a gradual recovery, but the lagged impact of past monetary policy tightening and continued central bank caution around inflation, particularly in Europe, means momentum will take time to build. Join us for a full summary of the outlook across key sectors.

Webinar

Commodity outlook: How much further will prices fall?

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Diego Cacciapuoti, Samuel Bakst and Toby Whittington | Online | September 20, 2024

Commodity prices have plunged in recent weeks, and investment banks are slashing their forecasts for next year. Demand has been weaker than investors anticipated, especially in China, albeit broadly in line with our own more bearish expectations. Strong supply from commodities such as wheat, copper, and crude oil has also weighed heavily on prices and contributed to inventory build. Gold has been an exception, with central banks driving its price higher and making it a bright spot for the complex. In this webinar, we explore the key themes facing commodity markets in 2025 and discuss the outlook for supply, demand, and prices.