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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
Global CRE key themes for 2024 – A year of transition

with Mark Unsworth and Nicholas Wilson | Online | January 30, 2024

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2. Commercial real estate (CRE) values are likely to be slow to recover but opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar we discuss the outlook and take you through our key themes for the year ahead.

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Webinar
Key themes for cities in 2024: Cities that will be driving growth in 2024

with Anthony Light and Mark Britton | Online | January 18, 2024

In what will likely be another challenging year for the global economy, attention will increasingly focus on identifying the most resilient cities, and those that will be leading the way forward for their national economies. In this webinar we will present our short-term forecasts for major cities in North America, Asia and Europe, and discuss the key themes that underpin our projections.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2024 – another year of price weakness

with Diego Cacciapuoti, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | December 15, 2023

Energy and metal markets have experienced a sharp reversal in prices this year, as we expected, diminishing the Super cycle thesis of our competitors. In this webinar, we examine the key themes affecting commodity markets in 2024 as the energy transition gathers pace and discuss our leading calls for prices in the year ahead. Overall, we expect another year of price weakness as we forecast the global economy to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic. We also anticipate supply to improve across commodity markets next year, which will further weigh on prices.

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Webinar
Why tourism will continue to grow in 2024: key themes to watch in the year ahead

with Helen McDermott and Dave Goodger | Online | December 14, 2023

There are reasons for continued optimism as we look ahead into 2024 for the travel sector, and we retain a bullish outlook despite several clear risk factors. Within this webinar we will explore the emerging trends that will drive continued growth in demand and travel spending, how this will differ from prior years, as well as discussing some of the key risks to this outlook.

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Webinar
Five key themes that will affect industry in 2024 — and beyond

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | December 13, 2023

2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for global industry: on the one hand, we expect some of the weakness of the past years to continue and broadly set a disappointing pace of growth, but on the other hand we expect that momentum will turn a corner towards the end of the year. Join us to hear about how we think key themes including higher interest rates, geopolitics, technology, the energy transition, and demographics, will will shape developments in industry both next year and in the years to come.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | December 8, 2023

In this webinar, we present our key themes for Latin America in 2024. Firstly, while annual growth will be slower than in 2023 and even slower than consensus, quarterly data will reveal a more nuanced picture. Secondly, inflation will largely continue to cool faster than markets expect, but there are risks on the horizon. Thirdly, a faster decline of inflation will allow central banks to cut faster than markets expect. And lastly, most countries will slow fiscal consolidation efforts against the backdrop of manageable debt in the near term, but soaring borrowing costs create risks.

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Webinar
Eurozone Key themes 2024 – Fragile recovery will gain impulse

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | December 7, 2023

After grinding to a halt in 2023, we expect the cogs of the eurozone economy to start slowly turning again in 2024, gaining more momentum as the year goes on. Our key call is for faster disinflation, which together with a weak growth outlook will prompt the ECB to normalise policy earlier and more forcefully than what the markets are expecting. This should in turn help to usher in stronger consumption growth. But there are potential headwinds aplenty – looming fiscal consolidations, possible supply shocks or hysteresis effects holding activity back.

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Webinar
Global Cities: Identifying opportunities amid long-term challenges

with Anthony Bernard-Sasges and George Bowen | Online | December 6, 2023

The established world order of urban economic power is evolving and by 2050 there will be sizeable shifts. Many mature economic powerhouses in the developed world are facing demographic timebombs and are likely to fall down the global rankings as a result. Replacing them, in scale though not prosperity, will be cities in emerging markets, though these cities aren’t without risk and many face a plethora of challenges. In this webinar, we will discuss some of the key long-term trends, challenges and opportunities facing city economies.

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Webinar
Global EM Key themes for 2024 – disinflation prevails

with Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | December 5, 2023

Global economic travails will present a challenge for EMs next year, but we see EM disinflation progressing more smoothly than 2023. Covid and other legacies will still trouble several EMs; we outline our biggest concerns and where we see the greatest opportunities.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Global: Key themes 2024 – Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | December 1, 2023

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2 – at least that seems to be the broad agreement among markets, policymakers, and forecasters. For the most part, we concur and have identified three key themes that we think will be key to the precise path that economies and financial markets take next year: Risks to the consensus growth view are skewed to the downside. Inflation trends will diverge more. Despite the gloom, some bright spots will emerge In this webinar we explore these three key themes in more detail

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Webinar
UK Key Themes for 2024

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 29, 2023

Our final UK webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. Though the inflation shock is fading, consumers will remain under pressure as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to emerge. Companies will also feel the pinch, with high debt servicing costs the latest in a series of problems they’ve had to deal with. But it’s not all bad news. The labour market appears to be headed for a relatively soft landing. And with a general election fast approaching, we’ll discuss whether the fiscal policy landscape is likely to change.

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Webinar
Watchlist 2024 – Coups, devaluations, and the birth of a sector

with Jacques Nel and Pieter Scribante | Online | November 28, 2023

Next year will see some countries breaching breaking points. It will also see the birth of a new industry and somewhat of a renaissance in East Africa’s economic anchor. In this webinar we discuss our watchlist for 2024. Our calls include major devaluations in Ethiopia & Egypt, and the highest likelihood in decades of coups d’état in Cameroon & Tunisia. We will give our expectations regarding South Africa’s presidential elections, and discuss two decidedly positive expectations: the inception of Africa’s green hydrogen sector and Kenya getting its economic groove back.

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