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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
What the pandemic has taught us about inflation

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | April 16, 2024

When inflation first rose up in 2021, we argued it wasn't the start of a shift to a higher, more volatile inflation regime. Despite the big spike since, we maintain this view. In this webinar we explore some of the inflation lessons from the pandemic and assess the extent to which we have entered a new era for inflation targeting.

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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: An Equitable Path for Sustainable Development

with Beatrice Tanjangco and Manuela Kiehl | Online | January 19, 2024

Climate-related disasters continue to break records and disproportionately impact developing economies. At COP 28 in November, the issue of how we fund the climate transition was pushed to 2024. In light of this, Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Service updates its bespoke Sustainable Development scenario, in which advanced economies take a lead in climate mitigation and allow developing economies more time to wind down their emissions. They also provide cross-country funding transfers because developing economies don’t have the necessary spending power to invest in green infrastructure and technologies. This pathway provides developing economies with the leeway to pursue their climate agenda without compromising growth or the global transition. In this webinar, we will review what happened in COP28 and the economic implications of a Sustainable Development scenario relative to other climate pathways such as Net Zero.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Watchlist 2024 – Coups, devaluations, and the birth of a sector

with Jacques Nel and Pieter Scribante | Online | November 28, 2023

Next year will see some countries breaching breaking points. It will also see the birth of a new industry and somewhat of a renaissance in East Africa’s economic anchor. In this webinar we discuss our watchlist for 2024. Our calls include major devaluations in Ethiopia & Egypt, and the highest likelihood in decades of coups d’état in Cameroon & Tunisia. We will give our expectations regarding South Africa’s presidential elections, and discuss two decidedly positive expectations: the inception of Africa’s green hydrogen sector and Kenya getting its economic groove back.

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Webinar
Perspectivas para España y Europa: los consumidores serán clave

with Angel Talavera and Debora Bourdon | Online | November 20, 2023

Con la economía de la zona euro al borde de la recesión, las perspectivas a corto plazo siguen siendo negativas. Para 2024 esperamos una cierta recuperación en Europa de la mano de unos consumidores que verán una mejora en su renta disponible debido a la caída de la inflación. Aunque los riesgos en el sector energético han disminuido en gran medida, las tensiones geopolíticas y el impacto de las subidas de tipos seguirán presentando riesgos para el crecimiento. En España, esperamos un crecimiento algo más flojo que este año a medida que los vientos de cola en la recuperación del sector servicios se agotan, pero seguiremos creciendo por encima de la media de la zona euro.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – July 2023

with Tony Stillo, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | August 10, 2023

The Canadian economy outperformed expectations in early 2023, but it was likely just a temporary reprieve from recession. In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow economists, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume discuss the economy’s recent resilience and the forces that make a moderate downturn unavoidable.

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Webinar
Why travel will recover this year in the face of economic headwinds

with Dave Goodger and Helen McDermott | Online | June 23, 2023

2023 will mark a return to pre-pandemic levels of global travel activity, despite a slowing global economy. The reasons for this recovery, and expectations for ongoing growth will be explored within this webinar. The travel sector in advanced economies is proving resilient to the current economic headwinds as households are prioritising a return to leisure travel activities, despite the squeeze on incomes. Corporate travel is also returning in sharp contrast to predictions of the demise of this segment. Emerging markets are also resuming an important role in shaping demand now the majority of travel restrictions are lifted and are growing in importance.

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Webinar
Crises and opportunities in Africa

with Irmgard Erasmus and Maya Senusi | Online | April 27, 2023

We draw global and country-specific implications for the current wave of sovereign crises, stressing implications for debt sustainability and sovereign bonds. We focus on three African economies (Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria).

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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