Events Archive

Webinar

Crises and opportunities in Africa

with Irmgard Erasmus and Maya Senusi | Online | April 27, 2023

We draw global and country-specific implications for the current wave of sovereign crises, stressing implications for debt sustainability and sovereign bonds. We focus on three African economies (Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria).

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Webinar

Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar

Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar

The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar

Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar

Global Outlook: Recession still likely but the risks are becoming more balanced

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | January 18, 2023

We expect the world economy to have a weak 2023, with large swathes of the advanced economies falling into recession. But on the whole, events of the past couple of months have been mildly encouraging and suggest that risks around our subdued baseline forecast for global growth have become more balanced.

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Webinar

UK 2023 Themes: Recession ahead but policy pivot unlikely

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | December 20, 2022

We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real household income and tight policy settings. Given the underlying conditions that drove tight policy settings have not gone away, it looks unlikely that policymakers will pivot towards providing more support unless the downturn is much deeper than we anticipate.

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Webinar

Key Global Trends for 2023

with Ben May | Online | December 15, 2022

We expect vast swathes of the advanced economies to fall into recession in 2023 and for global growth to be weaker than the consensus expectation. Beyond this, we think that three broad themes which will dominate next year from an economic and financial market perspective: 1. Supply shocks will ease but won't fade completely. 2. Inflation will fall sharply but a fast central bank pivot is less likely. 3. Recessions will be mild but subsequent recoveries disappointing.

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Webinar

A global industrial recession – led by Europe

with Jeremy Leonard and Nico Palesch | Online | December 14, 2022

The Global Industry Team will present the results of its quarterly forecast update, which will provide an overview and the highlights of updated projections for industries in all 77 countries covered by the Global Industry Service. Key topics include the trajectory and drivers of global and national industrial production during the economic weakness expected in Q4 2022 and H1 2023, the sectors most impacted, and the prospects for recovery in the short-, medium-, and long-run.

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Webinar

EMs’ year ahead – time to pick up a few gems as the steam roller passes by

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | December 8, 2022

In our annual outlook for global emerging markets, we will highlight those EMs most vulnerable to weak global demand and a strong dollar in 2023. Better news is that tail risks associated with very high import prices will fade; and we will show which economies and markets stand to benefit most from falling inflation, ahead-of-the-curve policies and any resumption in capital inflows. Finally, we will assess implications of global policy impotence to deal with this wave of sovereign distress.

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Webinar

Africa Watchlist 2023

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | December 6, 2022

Africa’s economic resilience will be tested in 2023 as the west and east battle it out for the fastest-growing region. What are the factors that might precipitate recessions in the continent’s largest economies, and where could the next debt restructuring take place? A flare-up in tensions may lead to conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, jeopardising economic integration within the East African Community. Zimbabwe heads to the polls next year – will we see meaningful change this time? In this webinar we will take a closer look at these key themes for Africa in 2023.

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Webinar

Global Cities: Another year, another crisis: will recent events alter long-term prospects for cities?

with George Bowen and Mark Britton | Online | November 29, 2022

Cities around the world will enter 2023 in the midst of a global recession. In this webinar, we will outline the short-term outlook for the world’s major cities and discuss some of the long-term challenges facing the urban economy.

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Webinar

The threat to world growth from property markets

with Innes McFee and Adam Slater | Online | November 17, 2022

With world property markets starting to weaken, we examine how large a downturn is likely, what factors will be key to determining the extent of the downturn (over time and across economies), and what the impact of property market weakness could be on world GDP growth.

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Webinar

Asian Economic Outlook for 2023

with Arup Raha and Gabriel Sterne | Online | November 16, 2022

Asian economies are no strangers to economic shocks but this time is different. In particular, China’s growth has faltered, the Fed is raising rates, and energy prices are high. This combination is unprecedented. Moreover, there is limited counter-cyclical policy space. Arup Raha will present the Asia team’s outlook on the upcoming year – the likely outcomes and main risks.

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Webinar

Africa in 2023

with Callee Davis and Jacques Nel | Online | November 15, 2022

The global economy is on the cusp of a recession. A number of African economies have historically been able to shrug off an unfavourable external backdrop, but a marked tightening in global financial conditions will make this time more challenging. In this session we will give our view on how 2023 will unfold on the continent and what we should, and shouldn’t, expect.

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Webinar

A Globally Tight Supply Chain; what could it mean for your demand and supply?

with Darren Anderson and Caroline Franklin | Online | October 27, 2022

The global trade market has undergone a significant upheaval in the past three years, but in a largely synchronous fashion with what was first a global slowdown in spending and then a rapid uptick in consumer goods and building materials. A third wave appears on the horizon as central banks are consciously seeking to temper demand.

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Webinar

Nordic outlook: A difficult winter ahead

with Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper - Scott, Alexandra Hermann and Daniel Kral | Online | October 26, 2022

After a strong first half of the year, the Nordic economies have a difficult winter ahead amid high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and softening activity. In this webinar, we will discuss the macroeconomic outlook for this winter and beyond, as well as our view on Nordic industry and cities performance.

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Webinar

Untangling the African political economy patchwork

with Pieter Scribante and Jacques Nel | Online | October 25, 2022

The African policy environment is volatile and difficult to predict due to complex interconnections between politics and economics. By using political economy risk tools, we can better understand where we could see the most severe policy volatility and what direction this policy might take. In this session we explore the findings of our updated political economy framework. These findings include in what way the nature of challenges to government supremacy matter – challenges by civil society (South Africa, Botswana, and Mauritius) have qualitatively different outcomes to challenges by the military or armed groups (Mozambique, Libya, and Ethiopia) – and how elections feed into policy decisions.

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Webinar

Global Climate Service: Pathways to a fair transition

with Felicity Hannon, David Winter and Beatrice Tanjangco | Online | October 18, 2022

Climate-related disasters continue to break records and disproportionately impact developing economies. Looking ahead to COP 27 in November, the issues of justice and fairness in the climate transition will be key discussion points. In light of this, Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Service explores a new scenario, Sustainable Development, in which advanced economies and large emitters (e.g., China) take the lead in climate mitigation. The remaining countries wind down their emissions more gradually, while still benefiting from technological spill overs that ensure widespread improvements in energy access, mix, and electrification. These pathways provide developing economies with the leeway to pursue their development agenda without compromising growth or the global transition.

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