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Webinar
US economic key themes for 2025

with Ryan Sweet | Online | November 25, 2024

We remain more optimistic than the consensus on the US and expect its period of growth exceptionalism to continue. Policy uncertainty will remain high but this isn’t the first, nor the last, the economy has dealt with elevated uncertainty. Businesses can quickly adapt and the prospects for expansionary fiscal policy on top of an already solid backdrop for US consumer spending and investment, the US economy will likely further distance itself from the rest of the pack.   

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Webinar
Industrial recovery struggles to gain momentum

with Abby Samp and Dominic Dobryniewski | Online | September 23, 2024

Industrial production growth has improved relative to last year, but still trails the broader economy. The cycle has bottomed out and remains on course for a gradual recovery, but the lagged impact of past monetary policy tightening and continued central bank caution around inflation, particularly in Europe, means momentum will take time to build. Join us for a full summary of the outlook across key sectors.

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Webinar
Navigating the Geopolitical storm – our latest scenarios

with Jamie Thompson and Samuel Gonzalez Holguera | Online | September 12, 2024

How could escalating geopolitical tensions reshape the global economy? With businesses increasingly alarmed by geopolitical risks, this webinar will delve into the most pressing concerns identified in recent Global Risk Surveys. Our analysis covers the potential economic impacts of rising Middle East tensions and the consequences of a renewed trade war if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Additionally, we examine other risks associated with the 2024 US election, including the implications of a Kamala Harris presidential victory. Join us to gain critical insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service.

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Webinar
Già finito il sogno di un’eurozona a trazione italiana?

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | July 4, 2024

Dopo tre anni di crescita superiore rispetto all’eurozona, e nonostante un avvio di 2024 solido, l’economia italiana sembra destinata a rallentare rispetto ai partner europei, complici un settore manifatturiero che fatica a ripartire e il minor supporto fiscale al settore edile.

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Webinar
Eurozone: A steady but unspectacular recovery

with Ricardo Amaro | Online | June 17, 2024

Latest data reinforced signs that the eurozone's economic recovery is continuing to progress following stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.3% q/q in Q1. But growth remains uneven country and sector-wide, leaving a further pickup in momentum unlikely in the near-term. We continue to expect the recovery will gather pace next year, with GDP growth rising to 1.8% after 0.8% in 2024. In this webinar, we will recap our outlook for the eurozone economy and ECB policy.

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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
What the pandemic has taught us about inflation

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | April 16, 2024

When inflation first rose up in 2021, we argued it wasn't the start of a shift to a higher, more volatile inflation regime. Despite the big spike since, we maintain this view. In this webinar we explore some of the inflation lessons from the pandemic and assess the extent to which we have entered a new era for inflation targeting.

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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: An Equitable Path for Sustainable Development

with Beatrice Tanjangco and Manuela Kiehl | Online | January 19, 2024

Climate-related disasters continue to break records and disproportionately impact developing economies. At COP 28 in November, the issue of how we fund the climate transition was pushed to 2024. In light of this, Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Service updates its bespoke Sustainable Development scenario, in which advanced economies take a lead in climate mitigation and allow developing economies more time to wind down their emissions. They also provide cross-country funding transfers because developing economies don’t have the necessary spending power to invest in green infrastructure and technologies. This pathway provides developing economies with the leeway to pursue their climate agenda without compromising growth or the global transition. In this webinar, we will review what happened in COP28 and the economic implications of a Sustainable Development scenario relative to other climate pathways such as Net Zero.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Watchlist 2024 – Coups, devaluations, and the birth of a sector

with Jacques Nel and Pieter Scribante | Online | November 28, 2023

Next year will see some countries breaching breaking points. It will also see the birth of a new industry and somewhat of a renaissance in East Africa’s economic anchor. In this webinar we discuss our watchlist for 2024. Our calls include major devaluations in Ethiopia & Egypt, and the highest likelihood in decades of coups d’état in Cameroon & Tunisia. We will give our expectations regarding South Africa’s presidential elections, and discuss two decidedly positive expectations: the inception of Africa’s green hydrogen sector and Kenya getting its economic groove back.

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Webinar
Perspectivas para España y Europa: los consumidores serán clave

with Angel Talavera and Debora Bourdon | Online | November 20, 2023

Con la economía de la zona euro al borde de la recesión, las perspectivas a corto plazo siguen siendo negativas. Para 2024 esperamos una cierta recuperación en Europa de la mano de unos consumidores que verán una mejora en su renta disponible debido a la caída de la inflación. Aunque los riesgos en el sector energético han disminuido en gran medida, las tensiones geopolíticas y el impacto de las subidas de tipos seguirán presentando riesgos para el crecimiento. En España, esperamos un crecimiento algo más flojo que este año a medida que los vientos de cola en la recuperación del sector servicios se agotan, pero seguiremos creciendo por encima de la media de la zona euro.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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