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November / December 2019

  • Activity data suggest the world slowdown is not over. October’s global composite PMI plumbed a new low for the year, close to troughs in the prior two slowdowns of the past decade.
  • Whether slowing services weaken more depends on the resilience of advanced economy consumers. With still-solid jobs growth, consumer spending and sentiment gauges do not suggest households are tightening belts.
  • Policy stimulus, stabilising in trade tensions, and strengthening of some emerging markets could help growth level-off in mid-2020. We forecast 2.5% global growth in 2020 and 2021 – a long way from recession, but very subdued.
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