Commodity outlook: How much further will prices fall?

Commodity prices have plunged in recent weeks, and investment banks are slashing their forecasts for next year. Demand has been weaker than investors anticipated, especially in China, albeit broadly in line with our own more bearish expectations. Strong supply from commodities such as wheat, copper, and crude oil has also weighed heavily on prices and contributed to inventory build. Gold has been an exception, with central banks driving its price higher and making it a bright spot for the complex. In this webinar, we explore the key themes facing commodity markets in 2025 and discuss the outlook for supply, demand, and prices.

Stephen Hare
Stephen Hare

Senior Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8142

Stephen Hare

Private: Stephen Hare

Senior Economist

London, United Kingdom

Stephen is part of the Industry team where he is responsible for the extraction sector forecasts and contributes to the monthly commodity price forecasts for iron and steel. Stephen joined Oxford Economics in January 2018 after completing his MSc in finance and econometrics at Queen Marys University of London.

Kiran Ahmed Bio
Kiran Ahmed

Lead Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8034

Kiran Ahmed Bio

Private: Kiran Ahmed

Lead Economist

London, United Kingdom

Kiran joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She works on the Industry and Global Macroeconomic Services as well as on consultancy work. Her work for the Industry Service primarily involves the basic metals and engineering sectors, and for the Global Macroeconomic Service includes forecasts for commodity prices and the several East Asian economies.

Diego Cacciapuoti
Diego Cacciapuoti

Economist

Diego Cacciapuoti

Private: Diego Cacciapuoti

Economist

London, United Kingdom

Diego is part of the Industry team where he contributes to the forecasting and monitoring of commodities and he is responsible for the monthly precious metals and agricultural price forecasts. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Diego gained work experience at Record Currency Management and completed an MPhil in Economics at the University of Oxford. Diego is fluent in English, French, and Italian

Samuel Bakst

Graduate Economist

Samuel Bakst

Graduate Economist

London, United Kingdom

Samuel joined Oxford Economics in September 2023 as an economist and is based in the London office. Prior to this, he studied Economics (Bsc) at the University of Bristol and later completed Economics (Msc) at UCL. Intertwined with his studies, Samuel has worked in other fields within consulting.

Before university Samuel completed a Year In Industry placement year at Quod, a leading planning consultancy based in London. During this year Samuel worked in the socio-economic working on nationally significant infrastructure projects in the UK. After this Samuel worked at Wood Mackenzie, a major energy consultancy placed in the liquified natural gas (LNG) teams as a junior analyst. Within economics, Samuel is interested in macroeconomics and the ever-evolving intersection of economics with machine learning. His master’s thesis applied the latest algorithms in sentiment analysis to estimate how sentiment gets conveyed from central banks through the media, to the market.

Toby Wittington
Toby Whittington

Lead Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8046

Toby Wittington

Private: Toby Whittington

Lead Economist

London, United Kingdom

Toby joined Oxford Economics in July 2014 as an Economist with the Industry team. He is currently responsible for the intermediate goods sector forecasts as well as contributing to Industry consultancy projects. Toby was educated at Birkbeck College, University of London, where he gained a first-class degree in Financial Economics, followed by a MSc degree in Economics. His MSc dissertation investigated the transmission mechanism between the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme and UK interest rates.

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