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July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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Latest Analysis

  • Aug 03 2020

    China: Industrial profits recovery to continue

    Alongside the overall economy, industrial profits bounced back in Q2 after having tanked in Q1. We expect profit growth to remain robust in H2, helping underpin sentiment about the economy and the equ...

  • Jul 31 2020

    United States: Macro Musings: As Congress fiddles, the economy burns

    The economy’s report card for the second quarter contained more Fs than any rational parent would tolerate. While the record contraction during the period is in the rear-view mirror, inaction by Congr...

  • Jul 31 2020

    United States: Coronavirus policy response cheat sheet (w/e 31 Jul)

    Negotiations on a new fiscal package made little headway this week. Senate Republicans have floated the idea of a limited deal to extend unemployment benefits and an eviction moratorium, but Democrats...

  • Jul 31 2020

    Global Risk Survey: Fears of a second wave dominate

    Last month’s tentative improvement in business sentiment has proved fleeting, according to our latest survey of global risk perceptions. Compared with three months ago, more respondents now expect a d...

  • Jul 31 2020

    Eurozone GDP falls back to mid-2000s

    Following a 3.6% plunge in Q1, real GDP contracted by a record 12.1% in Q2, meaning a 15% peak-to-trough contraction. The drop in Q2 was in line with our estimate, therefore not triggering any meaning...

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What's on?

In the media

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Latest tweets

  • Aug 04 2020

    Largely as we expected, GDP data for Q2 published so far show very steep declines of 10%-15% in major economies. Early indications for Q2 for some emerging markets suggest their GDP slumps will be as bad or worse.

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot

  • Jul 31 2020

    Services-oriented states are suffering the greatest disruptions from the #coronavirus pandemic. Not only did these states sustain greater damage than goods-oriented states during the initial downturn, but their recoveries have lagged.

    Read more here

  • Jul 31 2020

    Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly last week. But the demand & employment components are showing some worrying fissures just as Congress is debating additional fiscal aid. And despite the national increase, the Recovery Trackers of 41 states fell:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Following this week's FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to adopt explicit forward guidance sometime in the fall, following the completion of its policy framework review. We forecast rate lift-off will not take place until 2024:

  • Jul 30 2020

    While incoming retail sales data suggest a V-shape recovery, these data don't tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, while retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumer spending in the current environment: