APAC Key Themes 2026: Paybacks, policy offsets and trade
Asia Pacific will continue to be the brightest spot in the global economy in 2026.
Despite the drag from higher US tariffs, Asia staged a stronger-than-expected rebound in 2025, accounting for nearly 55% of global growth by mid-year. A front-loaded export surge, a powerful AI-capex wave and agile regional supply-chain reorganisation helped the region outperform expectations.
These forces put Asia on a firmer footing going into 2026. But unlike previous cycles, the region’s growth path will likely be more uneven. Three key themes in particular will shape the APAC economy in 2026.
Below is an abridged view of our 2026 Asia Pacific Key Themes analysis. To view the full report, please complete the form on the right.
2026 APAC key theme 1
Governments will need to do more to fuel reflation and engineer a soft landing
A central question for Asia’s 2026 outlook is not whether policy will ease, but how much will be forthcoming, and how effectively it will be transmitted into the economy.
Monetary and fiscal policy are accommodative, but the balance of risks around future changes is uneven across countries within APAC. Central banks, now ever more data-dependent, are increasingly reluctant to cut aggressively. Governments, by contrast, appear more prepared to lean on their balance sheets.
As a result, we think the room for further monetary easing will be limited in 2026 and anticipate a growing tilt toward fiscal support.
2026 APAC key theme 2
Pessimistic consumers keep a lid on spending
Asian households are likely to enjoy a more supportive backdrop for spending in 2026, with cyclical pressures easing and increased fiscal stimulus.
The open question is whether this improvement is sufficient to unlock the roughly US$2.1tn in excess savings (around 6% of regional GDP) that we estimate households in the region have accumulated, but that was largely untouched during the pandemic.
Our estimates indicate that households in 10 of 13 APAC economies (Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam are the exceptions) are now markedly less inclined to spend out of incremental income.
Still, sentiment has stopped sliding in the region – a necessary precondition for improvement in household demand, though it’s likely to be slow and uneven, with Advanced Asia set to lead.
2026 APAC key theme 3
How China trade policy and global AI capex will drive regional exports
Firm-but-slower is our baseline for Asia’s goods exports in 2026. But beneath the headline moderation lies a set of powerful structural shifts: first, emerging Asia will continue to benefit from China-linked industrial deepening; second, the tech upcycle is cresting after an exceptional 2025; and third, advanced Asia faces fiercer competition and fewer growth engines.
This mix will result in more dispersed outcomes across economies, sectors and value-chain positions.
APAC in 2026: Solid growth, uneven undercurrents
Asia enters 2026 with soft-landing prospects intact. But the sequencing and interaction of the three forces shaping the outlook – policy support, a hesitant consumer, and a narrower, more uneven export cycle – will determine how the year unfolds.
Overall, we believe APAC will remain the strongest global performer in 2026. For businesses, however, it is critical to note the underlying divergences beneath the headline strength:
- Policy support will vary and shape demand conditions country by country.
- Shifts in China’s industrial and trade strategy will influence competitiveness across the region.
- The tech cycle is becoming riskier. Concentration in high-end semiconductors leaves parts of Asia vulnerable to inventory corrections or a pullback in AI capex.
Understanding these undercurrents – and the pace at which they evolve – will be crucial for market prioritisation, pricing decisions, supply-chain planning and investment allocation in 2026.
Our report Asia Pacific Key Themes 2026: Paybacks, policy offsets and trade, provides deeper insights into these themes, their implications for APAC economies and where the major risks and opportunities lie. To request access to the full report, please complete the form.
