US Shipping freight rates on track to stay low in 2026

Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this year. High frequency data shows that this trend has kept up in Q4, meaning port congestion is unlikely to become a concern.

• We expect downward pressure on freight rates to continue through 2026, so the risk that supply chain stress becomes inflationary is small.
• Increased stability in the Middle East could prompt carriers to return to shipping lanes that run through the Suez Canal.
• Our index remained within a tight range over the past year, despite large swings in trade volumes and changes in supply chain routes due to tariffs.
• The latest trade deal with China lowered tariff rates in both directions and will avoid bottlenecks around rare earth minerals, which are key for electronics, vehicles, and medical and defense equipment supply chains.