data insight
25 Nov 2025

Wage growth stable, but divergence under the hood in Australia

Wage momentum steadies as unemployment edges higher next year

Key findings

The WPI rose 0.8% q/q in Q3, keeping annual wage growth unchanged at 3.4%. While the WPI is a lagging indicator, the stability supports our view that the labour market remains tight.

Looking ahead, we expect the labour market to gradually cool, with unemployment hitting 4.6% by the middle of next year and wage growth stabilising at around 3.2%.

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    Tags:
    AustraliaLabour MarketUnemploymentWages
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