Scenarios and Macro Modelling Team

As a placement student in the Scenarios and Macro Modelling team, you will gain broad exposure to economic consulting and modelling work. Most of the team’s projects involve working with the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (GEM), the most widely used commercial large-scale macroeconomic model in the world, to develop bespoke scenarios.

You will be given more responsibility as you develop your skills and knowledge. By the end of the year students will typically be able to support the production of macroeconomic scenarios. Scenarios are a necessary tool to help clients understand the potential economic impacts of real-world events, and through this, you will have the opportunity to develop your knowledge and application of economics to real-world questions.

What does the team do? The team is responsible for:
  • The Global Scenario Service uses scenario analysis to explore the implications of key risks to the world economy such as the cost of living crisis
  • The Global Climate Service includes producing regular briefings on climate-related issues and developing long-term climate scenarios covering a wide range of potential climate risks facing the world today
  • Expanding regulatory stress tests such as that published by the Prudential Regulation Authority
  • Generating statistical scenarios designed for IFRS 9 and CECL accounting standards
  • Developing bespoke scenarios for purposes such as strategic or business planning
  • Improving the properties of the Global Economic Model, with recent additions including climate policy levers and updated government bond yield equations
  • Producing the forecast for a few smaller economies to support the Global Macro Service projects
Job Summary

The placement student in the Scenarios and Macro Modelling team will take on a range of tasks that include working extensively on Microsoft Excel and PowerBI to enhance the data analysis and charting capabilities of the team, gathering data and reviewing literature for the team’s research, maintaining data projects and developing Excel tools to support the teams’ deliverables. As the year progresses, the placement student takes on a larger role in the production of economic scenarios for our flagship scenario reports and bespoke client projects.

Throughout, you will gain valuable practical experience with Microsoft Office, mapping, statistical and other data software such as EViews, PowerBI, and Python.

The team sits in both our Oxford and London offices, and you may join either office.

Key responsibilities include:
  • Assisting our economists with the publication of the Global Scenarios Service and Global Climate Service flagship reports. This involves data collection, data analysis, and report drafting
  • Independently forecasting two small countries. This entails building and analysing the forecast for different macroeconomic indicators, applying economic theory, and considering recent economic developments. Students will also be tasked with writing the country economic outlook report, which will be sent to our clients, and they will field client queries on their economies
  • Expanding model equations on the GEM under the supervision of economists; manipulation, application of programs or formulas to automate tasks and engagement with forecasters or scenario runners
  • Managing a variety of client data projects. Such tasks typically involve data
What our past students say:

I learned something new every day and have applied what I have learned from my degree in ways I never thought possible. I cannot recommend a placement at OE enough, especially in the Scenarios and Modelling team. You learn a multitude of new skills, apply your degree every day and are a very much valued member of the team.” – Morgan, Scenarios and Modelling Placement 2021-22

The role gave me many opportunities to advance my excel and coding skills through exposure to the team’s products. The products I worked on included Global Scenario Service quarterly scenario updates, for which I used the modelling software to produce the data and excel to deliver directly to
clients. That was a great end-to-end experience of a project from development through to delivery. I was also involved in creating a stress test scenario for international banks, which was a fantastic opportunity to understand the financial industry better.
” – Georgia, Scenarios and Modelling Placement 2020-2021

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