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Topic: Health

The EU’s Tobacco Excise Directive set a harmonised framework for cigarette taxation, but our study shows that differences in the pace and scale of excise increases have contributed to a rise in illicit trade, especially in high-price Member States, and mixed cigarette excise revenue outcomes between 2011 and 2024 —highlighting the need for a more gradual and coordinated approach with the upcoming revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive.

The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.

Regions such as the South and West will bear the brunt of the drag on consumer spending.

The report evaluates the direct and indirect economic benefits of US funding for malaria control through two major channels: the US President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GF).

This study, commissioned by Reckitt, assesses the economic footprint of Reckitt’s U.S. operations on the U.S. economy in 2023.

We estimate that the weight-loss drug industry will be worth $80bn-140bn annually by 2030, thanks to rising rates of obesity and other weight-related health conditions.

Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK) commissioned Oxford Economics Africa to assess the future economic impact of malaria on the countries most exposed to the disease, as well as at the Africa and global levels, while also considering the UK’s relationship with the most affected countries and the benefits arising from localised research and development (R&D) and manufacturing.

The life sciences industry makes a major contribution to the UK economy. One in every 121 employed people in the UK works in the sector, which in 2023 contributed over £13 billion to the national economy.

technology

Oxford Economics helped Accenture Research explore the potential value that could be unlocked if big businesses embraced niche innovations in “tech propelled markets” that are often get stuck at subscale for too long.

We think China’s exit from its zero-Covid policy will only happen in H2 2023 – a more cautious view than consensus. From an epidemiological and political perspective, we do not think the country is ready yet to open up.

Since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, key themes of scientific research—testing procedures, drug treatments, and vaccinations—have become urgent topics of debate for policymakers, academics, and the general public alike. Scientific research is also a very important topic for economists, because it often leads to innovative new products and processes, which create more efficient ways of doing things (which we refer to as productivity gains) or improves standards of living. Few economists would disagree that innovations and technological progress are crucial to growth over the long term.

Oxford Economics worked with Accenture to survey 11,823 people in 14 countries about their opinions on healthcare experiences in terms of access, service experience, digital technologies, and trust.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Canadian 2022 Themes: Economic recovery delayed not derailed

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Canada’s full economic recovery from the pandemic has been delayed, not
derailed. The economy continues to benefit from reopening amid high
vaccination rates, but it is being hit by supply disruptions exacerbated by
floods in BC, rising cost pressures, and resurgent health concerns as the
Omicron variant ushers the pandemic into a new year.

As of Q3 2021, real output was still 1.4% below its pre-virus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Even with 4.3% GDP growth pencilled in for next year, the economy won’t return to its pre-Covid trend in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Canadian 2022 Themes: Economic recovery delayed not derailed

Copy of Ipad Frame (52)

Canada’s full economic recovery from the pandemic has been delayed, not
derailed. The economy continues to benefit from reopening amid high
vaccination rates, but it is being hit by supply disruptions exacerbated by
floods in BC, rising cost pressures, and resurgent health concerns as the
Omicron variant ushers the pandemic into a new year.

As of Q3 2021, real output was still 1.4% below its pre-virus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Even with 4.3% GDP growth pencilled in for next year, the economy won’t return to its pre-Covid trend in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid concerns dominate the outlook once again

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The surge in Covid cases continues across Europe, prompting governments to announce new restrictive measures that will impact economic growth in the near term. While monthly activity indicators are still consistent with a robust expansion, we expect a substantial deterioration in December when surveys fully capture the impact from the latest wave.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid concerns dominate the outlook once again

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-Covid-concerns-dominate-the-outlook-once-again

The surge in Covid cases continues across Europe, prompting governments to announce new restrictive measures that will impact economic growth in the near term. While monthly activity indicators are still consistent with a robust expansion, we expect a substantial deterioration in December when surveys fully capture the impact from the latest wave.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United States 2022 Themes: A ‘MESSI’ year ahead

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We anticipate 2022 will be a ‘MESSI’ (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) year for the US economy. After experiencing one of the most severe economic shocks of the past century in 2020, the US economy has vaulted into one of the most rapid recoveries in modern history in 2021. Still, it’s not time to pop the Champagne. The recovery process is far from complete, and the next stage of the recovery will be trickier to navigate.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United States 2022 Themes: A ‘MESSI’ year ahead

Copy of Ipad Frame (5)

We anticipate 2022 will be a ‘MESSI’ (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) year for the US economy. After experiencing one of the most severe economic shocks of the past century in 2020, the US economy has vaulted into one of the most rapid recoveries in modern history in 2021. Still, it’s not time to pop the Champagne. The recovery process is far from complete, and the next stage of the recovery will be trickier to navigate.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Eurozone: Rising Covid cases may slow the recovery

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With Covid infections rising rapidly again across Europe, the health situation is back under the spotlight. Governments across the region are becoming very vocal again on containment measures, while relatively hard restrictions are being reimposed in some countries. Austria even announced a 10-day hard lockdown on Monday in an attempt to curb infections. While the vaccination campaigns mean the medical situation is less threatening for the economy than a year ago, we see the current trend as worrying and expect further restrictive measures to be announced across the bloc.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Eurozone: Rising Covid cases may slow the recovery

Ipad Frame (15)-3

With Covid infections rising rapidly again across Europe, the health situation is back under the spotlight. Governments across the region are becoming very vocal again on containment measures, while relatively hard restrictions are being reimposed in some countries. Austria even announced a 10-day hard lockdown on Monday in an attempt to curb infections. While the vaccination campaigns mean the medical situation is less threatening for the economy than a year ago, we see the current trend as worrying and expect further restrictive measures to be announced across the bloc.

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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker highlights the Eurozone gloom

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Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a sizeable drop over the two weeks to November 7, mainly driven by worsening conditions in health and mobility. The 1.1pts slide was the largest since April.

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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker highlights the Eurozone gloom

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Recovery-Tracker-highlights-the-Eurozone-gloom

Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a sizeable drop over the two weeks to November 7, mainly driven by worsening conditions in health and mobility. The 1.1pts slide was the largest since April.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Rising Covid cases in the eurozone – the tide has turned

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As Covid cases continue to rise in Europe, some governments have started to introduce new restrictions, while others have been discussing potential measures. We expect targeted measures across some countries mainly according to the health situation, but other factors, such as domestic political situations, will be relevant.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Rising Covid cases in the eurozone – the tide has turned

Ipad Frame -Eurozone-weekly-briefing-Rising-Covid-cases-in-the-eurozone-the-tide-has-turned

As Covid cases continue to rise in Europe, some governments have started to introduce new restrictions, while others have been discussing potential measures. We expect targeted measures across some countries mainly according to the health situation, but other factors, such as domestic political situations, will be relevant.

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A report with Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, identifies common issues linked to lagging research productivity, along with some practical steps for improving performance across the research ecosystem.

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Research Briefing | Nov 9, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker slows to a crawl heading into winter

Recovery Tracker slows to a crawl heading into winter

Our eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a small increase over the two weeks ended October 24, rising 0.3pts to 88.0, just shy of its post-pandemic high. The gain was driven by improvement in financial conditions and production; but, worryingly, the health situation is deteriorating again.

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Research Briefing | Nov 9, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker slows to a crawl heading into winter

Recovery Tracker slows to a crawl heading into winter

Our eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a small increase over the two weeks ended October 24, rising 0.3pts to 88.0, just shy of its post-pandemic high. The gain was driven by improvement in financial conditions and production; but, worryingly, the health situation is deteriorating again.

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