Canadian 2022 Themes: Economic recovery delayed not derailed
Canada’s full economic recovery from the pandemic has been delayed, not
derailed. The economy continues to benefit from reopening amid high
vaccination rates, but it is being hit by supply disruptions exacerbated by
floods in BC, rising cost pressures, and resurgent health concerns as the
Omicron variant ushers the pandemic into a new year.
As of Q3 2021, real output was still 1.4% below its pre-virus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Even with 4.3% GDP growth pencilled in for next year, the economy won’t return to its pre-Covid trend in 2022.
What you will learn:
- The economy as of Q3 2021 was still 1.4% below its previrus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Further, we don’t expect the economy to get back to its previrus trend in 2022, even with our forecast for strong 4.3% GDP growth.
- A sustained health recovery is the foundation for a sustained economic recovery.
- Planned public capital investments and delayed spending of excess savings by households will also add to growth, while housing investment eases further from unsustainable highs and pandemic income support comes to an end.
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.Find Out More
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More