Eurozone | Recovery Tracker highlights the Eurozone gloom
Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a sizeable drop over the two weeks to November 7, mainly driven by worsening conditions in health and mobility. The 1.1pts slide was the largest since April.
What you will learn:
- After a few weeks of resilience, the slump in our Recovery Tracker highlights the gloom that is affecting the eurozone economy in the last stage of the year. What’s more, some of the Tracker components for which we have data up to mid-November, such as mobility, suggest that the weakness is persisting.
- With Covid cases increasing in almost all eurozone countries, governments are introducing new restrictions that are likely to become increasingly tough.
- As a result, we intend to revise down our expectation for eurozone Q4 GDP growth in our updated forecast baseline that will be released at the start of December.
Nordics: Key themes 2024 – Light at the end of the tunnel
We forecast no rate cuts by the Fed up to and including the July meeting, while the market prices 72bps. We therefore see value in paying July FOMC-dated Fed Funds swaps, currently trading at 4.61%.Find Out More
Emerging Markets forecast issues – Policy easing faces stronger headwinds
In our latest monthly forecast, we raised our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 4.1%. We raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.1ppt to 5.2% after a slight outperformance in Q3, consistent with the official growth target of “around 5%". We maintain our 2024 aggregate EM growth forecast at 3.6%.Find Out More