Research Briefing
The negative market reaction to last week's fiscal announcements appears to be a function of doubts over the credibility of...
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Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
We continue to believe the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of...
Research Briefing
Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average,...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
The new Asia Real Estate Economics Service helps companies understand the implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical, financial and climate change on...
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Research Briefing
Argentina's best shot at keeping its IMF deal afloat, regaining market access, and repaying bondholders is by boosting its forex...
Research Briefing
South Africa faces a serious risk of being 'grey listed' by the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which will...
Research Briefing
The BoJ's quarterly Outlook Report revised up the median CPI forecast to 2.3% from 1.9% for FY2022, but estimates for FY2023 at 1.4% and FY2024 at 1.3% remain short of the BoJ's 2% target.
Research Briefing
Recession risks are mounting globally, including in the eurozone. Growing recession fears have resulted in large drops in oil prices...
Oxford Economics launches our Global Risk Service, a suite of data-driven and forward-looking tools that measure macro-economic and financial crises...
Research Briefing
We are concerned about the prospect of distressed sovereigns dragging down their domestic banking systems. We identify an extraordinarily high...
Research Briefing
Central banks have changed the way they react to economic conditions, largely focussing on current inflation and its impact on...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan stuck to its monetary policy at today’s (17 June) meeting, maintaining current short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates...
Research Briefing
Treasury yields rocketed higher and the curve flattened sharply last week as rate hike expectations jumped. The 2-year yield jumped...
Research Briefing
We forecast the renminbi to weaken close to CNY7/US$ before a rebound in 2023, assuming China moves beyond its zero-Covid...
Research Briefing
The quantitative easing (QE) programmes undertaken by the leading global central banks since the global financial crisis (GFC) have changed...
Private new capital expenditure fell 0.3% q/q in Q1 2022, led lower by a fall in buildings and structures investment. The weak result is in...
Research Briefing
Australia's terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) increased sharply through the pandemic due to a...
