Research Briefing
Surprisingly, the rate hiking cycle in the US has not been accompanied by a spike in financial distress. This partly...
Financial markets
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 655 results
Research Briefing
We think US high-yield spreads will trade at or below 400 bps throughout this year. Upward revisions to our US...
Research Briefing
Our risk sentiment indicator is now in extreme optimism territory and suggests that equities may be at risk of a...
Research Briefing
We were a little surprised that Fed officials had not pushed back harder against market expectations for aggressive rate cuts...
he Q4 update of our IFRS9 and CECL scenarios services paints a more pessimistic view of the balance of risks...
Research Briefing
We are unconvinced that recent measures mark a turning point in China's housing downturn, just as we were cautious of...
Research Briefing
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will...
Research Briefing
We think risk assets will underperform in 2024. We map out the implications of our key 2024 global macro themes...
Research Briefing
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023,...
Research Briefing
With the US Fed expected to remain on hold for a prolonged period, rate decisions in Asia are likely to...
Research Briefing
The dollar will continue to be supported by a high carry and the relative resilience of the US economy. Even...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Research Briefing
The relative resilience of G7 output in the face of aggressive rate hikes is partly due to the surprising strength...
Research Briefing
US equities dipped into correction territory last week and we see the risk of more downside in the near term, as valuations remain expensive...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone inflation will fall below the European Central Bank's target in H2 2024. This is one of our...
Research Briefing
We see the recent increase in term premia as explainable by the ongoing retreat of price insensitive foreign buyers, structurally...
Research Briefing
The People’s Bank of China has leaned against persistent renminbi weakness by consistently fixing the currency on the stronger side in recent months. Amid this heavy currency intervention, however, we don’t think there’s...
Research Briefing
Our growth outlook for Latin America is lower than the IMF's forecasts, published today. A key area of difference is...
In our latest Roundtable, “Finding opportunities in a global downturn”, Javier Corominas, Director of Global Macro Strategy, examines why we...
